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CSKA 1948 vs Etar Veliko Tarnovo — Friendlies Clubs 2026

CSKA 1948
CSKA 1948
FT
1 – 0
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
7/19/2020Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

CSKA 194858%
×Draw21%
Etar Veliko Tarnovo21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CSKA 1948
2.04
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
1.15

CSKA 1948 creates 77% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 16 away

creates per match

CSKA 1948
1.95
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
1.06

allows per match

CSKA 1948
1.23
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
2.13

finishing

CSKA 1948+0.00on par
Etar Veliko Tarnovo+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CSKA 1948 ↓

Etar Veliko Tarnovo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

CSKA 1948 or draw
79%
CSKA 1948 or Etar Veliko Tarnovo
79%
Draw or Etar Veliko Tarnovo
42%

Winning margin

CSKA 1948 wins by 2+
35%
Etar Veliko Tarnovo wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

CSKA 1948 1+ goals
87%
CSKA 1948 2+ goals
60%
CSKA 1948 3+ goals
33%
Etar Veliko Tarnovo 1+ goals
68%
Etar Veliko Tarnovo 2+ goals
32%
Etar Veliko Tarnovo 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

CSKA 1948 (draw refunded)
73%
Etar Veliko Tarnovo (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CSKA 1948 at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.23 · 22 matches

Etar Veliko Tarnovo away — creates 1.06, concedes 2.13 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CSKA 1948 attack 1.95 + Etar Veliko Tarnovo defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 2.04

Etar Veliko Tarnovo attack 1.06 + CSKA 1948 defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

CSKA 1948 scores more
58%
level
21%
Etar Veliko Tarnovo scores more
21%

CSKA 1948 at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "CSKA 1948 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: CSKA 1948 1–0 Etar Veliko Tarnovo

CSKA 1948 beat Etar Veliko Tarnovo 1-0 in Friendlies Clubs on July 19, 2020.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Pravets.