Estudiantes L.P. 0–1 Belgrano Cordoba

Estudiantes L.P.

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Belgrano Cordoba

N. Fernandez 41'

4/4/2025

Liga Profesional Argentina · 1st Phase - 12Estadio Jorge Luis Hirschi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Estudiantes L.P.43%

×Draw29%

Belgrano Cordoba28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Estudiantes L.P.Expected goals in this matchBelgrano Cordoba

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

0.94

Estudiantes L.P.

1.25

Belgrano Cordoba

0.94

Estudiantes L.P. creates 33% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 20 away

1.37

creates per match

0.94

0.93

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Estudiantes L.P.

1.37

Belgrano Cordoba

0.94

allows per match

Estudiantes L.P.

0.93

Belgrano Cordoba

1.14

-0.14scores less than expected

finishing

+0.01on par

finishing

Estudiantes L.P.-0.14scores less

Belgrano Cordoba+0.01on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Estudiantes L.P. ↓

Belgrano Cordoba →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Estudiantes L.P. or draw

72%

Estudiantes L.P. or Belgrano Cordoba

71%

Draw or Belgrano Cordoba

57%

Winning margin

Estudiantes L.P. wins by 2+

19%

Belgrano Cordoba wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Estudiantes L.P. 1+ goals

71%

Estudiantes L.P. 2+ goals

36%

Estudiantes L.P. 3+ goals

13%

Belgrano Cordoba 1+ goals

61%

Belgrano Cordoba 2+ goals

24%

Belgrano Cordoba 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Estudiantes L.P. (draw refunded)

61%

Belgrano Cordoba (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Estudiantes L.P. at home — creates 1.37, concedes 0.93 · 13 matches

Belgrano Cordoba away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.14 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Estudiantes L.P. attack 1.37 + Belgrano Cordoba defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.25

Belgrano Cordoba attack 0.94 + Estudiantes L.P. defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Estudiantes L.P. scores more

43%

level

29%

Belgrano Cordoba scores more

28%

Estudiantes L.P. at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Estudiantes L.P. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

S. Nunez

Estudiantes L.P. · D

7.9

Match Events

8'

A. Manyoma← A. Castro

17'

G. Heredia← E. Lopez

28'

José SosaGoal cancelled

41'

N. Fernandez↳ F. Gonzalez

46'

R. Gomez← E. Meza

46'

E. Cetre← J. Sosa

46'

Perez Fabricio← F. Farias

46'

F. Quignon← L. Passerini

49'

Gerónimo Heredia

53'

Franco Jara

67'

J. Mavilla← F. Gonzalez

75'

L. Gimenez← Gabriel Neves

80'

Fabricio Pérez

86'

U. Sanchez← L. Menossi

90+1'

Mariano Troilo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

EstudiantesBelgrano

Overview

65%Possession35%

14Total Shots7

9Corners5

11Fouls13

Shots

14Total Shots7

4On Target1

7Off Target3

3Blocked3

7Inside Box1

7Outside Box6

Passing

65%Possession35%

492Total Passes273

408Accurate Passes175

83%Pass Accuracy64%

Goalkeeping

0Saves4

Discipline

11Fouls13

1Yellow Cards3

2Offsides1