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Belgrano Cordoba vs Estudiantes L.P. — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

Belgrano Cordoba
Belgrano Cordoba
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Estudiantes L.P.
Estudiantes L.P.
B. Reyna 88'
F. Jara 17'
S. Ascacíbar 61'
E. Meza 42'
12/9/2024Liga Profesional ArgentinaLiga Profesional Argentina · 2nd Phase - 26Estadio Julio César Villagra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 16+ matches

Belgrano Cordoba37%
×Draw32%
Estudiantes L.P.31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Belgrano Cordoba
1.00
Estudiantes L.P.
0.88

Belgrano Cordoba creates 14% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 16 away

creates per match

Belgrano Cordoba
0.99
Estudiantes L.P.
0.77

allows per match

Belgrano Cordoba
0.98
Estudiantes L.P.
1.01

finishing

Belgrano Cordoba+0.12scores more
Estudiantes L.P.+0.29scores more

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Belgrano Cordoba ↓

Estudiantes L.P. →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Belgrano Cordoba or draw
69%
Belgrano Cordoba or Estudiantes L.P.
68%
Draw or Estudiantes L.P.
63%

Winning margin

Belgrano Cordoba wins by 2+
14%
Estudiantes L.P. wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Belgrano Cordoba 1+ goals
63%
Belgrano Cordoba 2+ goals
26%
Belgrano Cordoba 3+ goals
8%
Estudiantes L.P. 1+ goals
59%
Estudiantes L.P. 2+ goals
22%
Estudiantes L.P. 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Belgrano Cordoba (draw refunded)
55%
Estudiantes L.P. (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Belgrano Cordoba at home — creates 0.99, concedes 0.98 · 19 matches

Estudiantes L.P. away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.01 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Belgrano Cordoba attack 0.99 + Estudiantes L.P. defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.00

Estudiantes L.P. attack 0.77 + Belgrano Cordoba defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Belgrano Cordoba scores more
37%
level
32%
Estudiantes L.P. scores more
31%

Belgrano Cordoba at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Belgrano Cordoba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

29
F. JaraBelgrano CordobaBelgrano Cordoba · F
7.9

Match Events

17'
F. Jara↳ R. Delgado
42'
E. Meza↳ A. Castillo Manyoma
45'
Luciano Lollo
46'
E. Pérez← G. Neves
46'
P. Piatti← F. Rodríguez
53'
E. Rolón← F. Quignon
53'
G. Heredia← M. Suárez
56'
Francisco González Metilli
58'
Francisco Facello
61'
S. Ascacíbar↳ G. Carrillo
63'
Mariano Troilo
64'
L. Giménez← G. Carrillo
64'
J. Altamirano← A. Castillo Manyoma
65'
I. Chicco← J. Espínola
66'
B. Reyna← R. Delgado
72'
B. Kociubinski← T. Palacios
77'
R. Hernandes← F. Facello
88'
B. Reyna↳ E. Rolón

Possession

52%Belgrano

Shots

13Belgrano

Pass accuracy

47%Belgrano

Statistics

BelgranoEstudiantes
Overview
52%Possession48%
13Total Shots10
0.92Expected Goals (xG)0.73
9Corners3
7Fouls10
Shots
13Total Shots10
6On Target5
3Off Target4
4Blocked1
6Inside Box8
7Outside Box2
Passing
52%Possession48%
424Total Passes407
318Accurate Passes340
75%Pass Accuracy84%
Goalkeeping
3Saves4
-0.54Goals Prevented-0.54
Discipline
7Fouls10
3Yellow Cards1
1Offsides1

Match Recap: Belgrano Cordoba vs Estudiantes L.P.

Belgrano Cordoba and Estudiantes L.P. drew 2-2 in Liga Profesional Argentina on December 9, 2024.

Goals: F. Jara (17'), E. Meza (42'), S. Ascacíbar (61'), B. Reyna (88').

Belgrano Cordoba controlled possession (52%) and registered 13 shots to 10.

The match was played at Estadio Julio César Villagra in Ciudad de Córdoba, Provincia de Córdoba.