Belgrano Cordoba 1–0 Estudiantes L.P.

Belgrano Cordoba

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Estudiantes L.P.

J. Susvielles 61' (pen)

7/13/2022

Copa Argentina · Round of 32Estadio 15 de Abril

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Belgrano Cordoba39%

×Draw29%

Estudiantes L.P.32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Belgrano CordobaExpected goals in this matchEstudiantes L.P.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.04

Belgrano Cordoba

1.17

Estudiantes L.P.

1.04

Belgrano Cordoba creates 13% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 6 away

1.67

creates per match

1.33

0.75

allows per match

0.67

creates per match

Belgrano Cordoba

1.67

Estudiantes L.P.

1.33

allows per match

Belgrano Cordoba

0.75

Estudiantes L.P.

0.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Belgrano Cordoba+0.00on par

Estudiantes L.P.+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Belgrano Cordoba ↓

Estudiantes L.P. →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Belgrano Cordoba or draw

68%

Belgrano Cordoba or Estudiantes L.P.

71%

Draw or Estudiantes L.P.

61%

Winning margin

Belgrano Cordoba wins by 2+

16%

Estudiantes L.P. wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Belgrano Cordoba 1+ goals

69%

Belgrano Cordoba 2+ goals

33%

Belgrano Cordoba 3+ goals

11%

Estudiantes L.P. 1+ goals

65%

Estudiantes L.P. 2+ goals

28%

Estudiantes L.P. 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Belgrano Cordoba (draw refunded)

55%

Estudiantes L.P. (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Belgrano Cordoba at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.75 · 12 matches

Estudiantes L.P. away — creates 1.33, concedes 0.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Belgrano Cordoba attack 1.67 + Estudiantes L.P. defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.17

Estudiantes L.P. attack 1.33 + Belgrano Cordoba defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Belgrano Cordoba scores more

39%

level

29%

Estudiantes L.P. scores more

32%

Belgrano Cordoba at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Belgrano Cordoba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

18'

24'

46'

50'

61'

B. Orosco← F. Zapiola

61'

J. SusviellesPenalty

66'

F. Oliver

68'

G. Pereira← G. Tomasetti

70'

B. Rollheiser← F. Zuqui

76'

N. Meriano

76'

L. Diaz

78'

A. Rébola← W. Olivera

78'

S. Longo← A. Rojas

82'

P. Piatti← L. Godoy

83'

P. Vegetti← M. Comba

83'

D. Novaretti← I. Hesar

84'

86'

G. Pereira

Belgrano

Estudiantes

21

Andújar

26

▼

Lollo

6

Más

18

Noguera

29

▼

Godoy

3

Rogel

8

▼

Zuqui

20

Castro

30

Rodríguez

22

▼

Zapiola

9

Díaz

1

Vicentini

2

▼

Olivera

3

Oliver

6

Meriano

8

▼

Rojas

5

Ramírez

10

▼

Tomasetti

9

⚽

Susvielle

7

▼

Comba

11

▼

Hesar

4

Sánchez

Manager: G. Farré

68'▲G. Pereira←▼G. Tomasetti

78'▲A. Rébola←▼W. Olivera

78'▲S. Longo←▼A. Rojas

83'▲P. Vegetti←▼M. Comba

83'▲D. Novaretti←▼I. Hesar

Belgrano Cordoba substitutes

23Pereira13Rébola16Longo22Vegetti14Novaretti21Ostchega12Losada19Zapelli18García20Bordagaray17Tapia15Compagnucci

Manager: R. Zielinski

46'▲L. Heredia←▼L. Lollo

61'▲B. Orosco←▼F. Zapiola

70'▲B. Rollheiser←▼F. Zuqui

82'▲P. Piatti←▼L. Godoy

Estudiantes L.P. substitutes

4Heredia32Orosco10Rollheiser31Piatti15Lattanzio28Pellegrino14Toledo23Piñeiro1Pourtau13Valdez5Morel25Mancuso

Copa Argentina: Belgrano Cordoba 1–0 Estudiantes L.P.

Belgrano Cordoba beat Estudiantes L.P. 1-0 in Copa Argentina on July 13, 2022.

Goals: J. Susvielles (61' pen).

The match was played at Estadio 15 de Abril in Ciudad de Santa Fe, Provincia de Santa Fe.

Belgrano Cordoba vs Estudiantes L.P. — Copa Argentina 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Copa Argentina: Belgrano Cordoba 1–0 Estudiantes L.P.