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Estrela vs Chaves — Segunda Liga 2018

Estrela
Estrela
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Chaves
Chaves
12/27/2021Segunda LigaSegunda Liga · Round 16Estádio José Gomes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Estrela36%
×Draw27%
Chaves37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Estrela
1.26
Chaves
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 80 away

creates per match

Estrela
1.38
Chaves
1.26

allows per match

Estrela
1.29
Chaves
1.15

finishing

Estrela+0.00on par
Chaves+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Estrela ↓

Chaves →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Estrela or draw
63%
Estrela or Chaves
73%
Draw or Chaves
64%

Winning margin

Estrela wins by 2+
16%
Chaves wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Estrela 1+ goals
72%
Estrela 2+ goals
36%
Estrela 3+ goals
13%
Chaves 1+ goals
72%
Chaves 2+ goals
36%
Chaves 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Estrela (draw refunded)
50%
Chaves (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Estrela at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.29 · 34 matches

Chaves away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.15 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Estrela attack 1.38 + Chaves defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.26

Chaves attack 1.26 + Estrela defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Estrela scores more
36%
level
27%
Chaves scores more
37%

Chaves at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Chaves will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Estrela vs Chaves

Chaves beat Estrela 3-1 in Segunda Liga on December 27, 2021.

The match was played at Estádio José Gomes in Amadora.