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Chaves vs Estrela — Segunda Liga 2018

Chaves
Chaves
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Estrela
Estrela
5/8/2022Segunda LigaSegunda Liga · Round 33Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Chaves40%
×Draw26%
Estrela34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chaves
1.35
Estrela
1.23

Chaves creates 10% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 34 away

creates per match

Chaves
1.34
Estrela
1.47

allows per match

Chaves
0.99
Estrela
1.35

finishing

Chaves+0.00on par
Estrela+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chaves ↓

Estrela →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Chaves or draw
66%
Chaves or Estrela
74%
Draw or Estrela
60%

Winning margin

Chaves wins by 2+
18%
Estrela wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Chaves 1+ goals
74%
Chaves 2+ goals
39%
Chaves 3+ goals
15%
Estrela 1+ goals
71%
Estrela 2+ goals
35%
Estrela 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Chaves (draw refunded)
54%
Estrela (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chaves at home — creates 1.34, concedes 0.99 · 80 matches

Estrela away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.35 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chaves attack 1.34 + Estrela defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.35

Estrela attack 1.47 + Chaves defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Chaves scores more
40%
level
26%
Estrela scores more
34%

Chaves at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Chaves will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chaves vs Estrela

Chaves and Estrela drew 2-2 in Segunda Liga on May 8, 2022.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira in Chaves.