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Chaves vs Estrela — Primeira Liga 2018

Chaves
Chaves
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Estrela
Estrela
9/24/2023Primeira LigaPrimeira Liga · Round 6Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Chaves44%
×Draw26%
Estrela29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chaves
1.43
Estrela
1.11

Chaves creates 29% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 51 away

creates per match

Chaves
1.21
Estrela
0.67

allows per match

Chaves
1.56
Estrela
1.65

finishing

Chaves+0.00on par
Estrela+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chaves ↓

Estrela →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Chaves or draw
71%
Chaves or Estrela
74%
Draw or Estrela
56%

Winning margin

Chaves wins by 2+
21%
Estrela wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Chaves 1+ goals
76%
Chaves 2+ goals
42%
Chaves 3+ goals
17%
Estrela 1+ goals
67%
Estrela 2+ goals
30%
Estrela 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Chaves (draw refunded)
60%
Estrela (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chaves at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.56 · 52 matches

Estrela away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.65 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chaves attack 1.21 + Estrela defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.43

Estrela attack 0.67 + Chaves defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Chaves scores more
44%
level
26%
Estrela scores more
29%

Chaves at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Chaves will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chaves vs Estrela

Chaves and Estrela drew 2-2 in Primeira Liga on September 24, 2023.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira in Chaves.