Estrela 2–3 Benfica: Result & Stats | Primeira Liga

Estrela

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 3

Benfica

2/2/2025

Primeira Liga · Round 20Estádio José Gomes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 19+ matches

Estrela27%

×Draw25%

Benfica48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EstrelaExpected goals in this matchBenfica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

1.60

Estrela

1.14

Benfica

1.60

Benfica creates 40% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 19 away

1.34

creates per match

1.80

1.40

allows per match

0.93

creates per match

Estrela

1.34

Benfica

1.80

allows per match

Estrela

1.40

Benfica

0.93

-0.18scores less than expected

finishing

+0.20scores more than expected

finishing

Estrela-0.18scores less

Benfica+0.20scores more

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Estrela ↓

Benfica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Estrela or draw

52%

Estrela or Benfica

75%

Draw or Benfica

73%

Winning margin

Estrela wins by 2+

11%

Benfica wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Estrela 1+ goals

68%

Estrela 2+ goals

32%

Estrela 3+ goals

11%

Benfica 1+ goals

80%

Benfica 2+ goals

47%

Benfica 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Estrela (draw refunded)

36%

Benfica (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Estrela at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.40 · 19 matches

Benfica away — creates 1.80, concedes 0.93 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Estrela attack 1.34 + Benfica defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.14

Benfica attack 1.80 + Estrela defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Estrela scores more

27%

level

25%

Benfica scores more

48%

Benfica at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Benfica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff