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Benfica vs Estrela — Primeira Liga 2018

Benfica
Benfica
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Estrela
Estrela
8/24/2024Primeira LigaPrimeira Liga · Round 3Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 18+ matches

Benfica65%
×Draw20%
Estrela15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Benfica
2.08
Estrela
0.88

Benfica creates 136% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 19 away

creates per match

Benfica
2.42
Estrela
0.92

allows per match

Benfica
0.83
Estrela
1.73

finishing

Benfica+0.36scores more
Estrela+0.03on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Benfica ↓

Estrela →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Benfica or draw
85%
Benfica or Estrela
80%
Draw or Estrela
35%

Winning margin

Benfica wins by 2+
41%
Estrela wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Benfica 1+ goals
87%
Benfica 2+ goals
61%
Benfica 3+ goals
34%
Estrela 1+ goals
59%
Estrela 2+ goals
22%
Estrela 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Benfica (draw refunded)
81%
Estrela (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Benfica at home — creates 2.42, concedes 0.83 · 18 matches

Estrela away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.73 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Benfica attack 2.42 + Estrela defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 2.08

Estrela attack 0.92 + Benfica defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Benfica scores more
65%
level
20%
Estrela scores more
15%

Benfica at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Benfica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primeira Liga: Benfica 1–0 Estrela

Benfica beat Estrela 1-0 in Primeira Liga on August 24, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica in Lisboa.