Benfica 7–0 Estrela: Result & Stats

Benfica

FT

7 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Estrela

11/23/2024

Taça de Portugal · 4th RoundEstádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Benfica68%

×Draw17%

Estrela15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BenficaExpected goals in this matchEstrela

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.55

1.10

Benfica

2.55

Estrela

1.10

Benfica creates 132% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 9 away

2.88

creates per match

1.33

0.88

allows per match

2.22

creates per match

Benfica

2.88

Estrela

1.33

allows per match

Benfica

0.88

Estrela

2.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Benfica+0.00on par

Estrela+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Benfica ↓

Estrela →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–17%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Benfica or draw

85%

Benfica or Estrela

83%

Draw or Estrela

32%

Winning margin

Benfica wins by 2+

46%

Estrela wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Benfica 1+ goals

92%

Benfica 2+ goals

72%

Benfica 3+ goals

46%

Estrela 1+ goals

67%

Estrela 2+ goals

30%

Estrela 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Benfica (draw refunded)

82%

Estrela (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Benfica at home — creates 2.88, concedes 0.88 · 16 matches

Estrela away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.22 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Benfica attack 2.88 + Estrela defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 2.55

Estrela attack 1.33 + Benfica defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Benfica scores more

68%

level

17%

Estrela scores more

15%

Benfica at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Benfica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff