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Estac Troyes vs Bastia — Ligue 2 2018

Estac Troyes
Estac Troyes
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Bastia
Bastia
T. Bentayeb 40'
10/17/2025Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 10Stade de l'Aube

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Estac Troyes47%
×Draw27%
Bastia26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Estac Troyes
1.45
Bastia
1.00

Estac Troyes creates 45% more chances

Season form · 106 home / 91 away

creates per match

Estac Troyes
1.57
Bastia
1.03

allows per match

Estac Troyes
0.98
Bastia
1.33

finishing

Estac Troyes+0.00on par
Bastia+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Estac Troyes ↓

Bastia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Estac Troyes or draw
74%
Estac Troyes or Bastia
73%
Draw or Bastia
53%

Winning margin

Estac Troyes wins by 2+
23%
Bastia wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Estac Troyes 1+ goals
77%
Estac Troyes 2+ goals
42%
Estac Troyes 3+ goals
18%
Bastia 1+ goals
63%
Bastia 2+ goals
26%
Bastia 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Estac Troyes (draw refunded)
65%
Bastia (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Estac Troyes at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.98 · 106 matches

Bastia away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.33 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Estac Troyes attack 1.57 + Bastia defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.45

Bastia attack 1.03 + Estac Troyes defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Estac Troyes scores more
47%
level
27%
Bastia scores more
26%

Estac Troyes at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Estac Troyes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
M. IfnaouiEstac TroyesEstac Troyes · M
7.7

Match Events

23'
Martin Adeline
27'
Antoine Mille
38'
H. Konate← N. Lemaitre
40'
T. Bentayeb↳ M. Ifnaoui
46'
F. Tomi← A. Roncaglia
46'
A. Aiki← N. Parravicini
48'
Mouhamed Diop
48'
Zakaria Ariss
53'
Juan Guevara
60'
Yvann Titi
63'
M. Petrignani← A. Boutrah
77'
J. Janneh← C. Vincent
77'
M. Ble← A. Zaouai
79'
Dominique Guidi
80'
M. El Idrissy← T. Bentayeb
82'
Adrien Monfray
90+2'
A. Phliponeau← A. Mille

Possession

34%Estac

Shots

10Estac

Pass accuracy

45%Estac

Statistics

EstacBastia
Overview
34%Possession66%
10Total Shots15
2Corners5
10Fouls15
Shots
10Total Shots15
4On Target2
2Off Target10
4Blocked3
4Inside Box8
6Outside Box7
Passing
34%Possession66%
248Total Passes473
170Accurate Passes400
69%Pass Accuracy85%
Goalkeeping
2Saves3
Discipline
10Fouls15
4Yellow Cards3
1Red Cards0
0Offsides3

Match Recap: Estac Troyes vs Bastia

Estac Troyes beat Bastia 1-0 in Ligue 2 on October 17, 2025.

Goals: T. Bentayeb (40').

Bastia controlled possession (66%) and registered 15 shots to 10.

The match was played at Stade de l'Aube in Troyes.