Estac Troyes 2–0 Bastia: Result & Stats | Ligue 2

Estac Troyes

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Bastia

C. Irié 53'

R. Saïd 12'

2/28/2025

Ligue 2 · Round 25Stade de l'Aube

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Estac Troyes47%

×Draw27%

Bastia26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Estac TroyesExpected goals in this matchBastia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.00

Estac Troyes

1.45

Bastia

1.00

Estac Troyes creates 45% more chances

Season form · 106 home / 91 away

1.57

creates per match

1.03

0.98

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Estac Troyes

1.57

Bastia

1.03

allows per match

Estac Troyes

0.98

Bastia

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Estac Troyes+0.00on par

Bastia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Estac Troyes ↓

Bastia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Estac Troyes or draw

74%

Estac Troyes or Bastia

73%

Draw or Bastia

53%

Winning margin

Estac Troyes wins by 2+

23%

Bastia wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Estac Troyes 1+ goals

77%

Estac Troyes 2+ goals

42%

Estac Troyes 3+ goals

18%

Bastia 1+ goals

63%

Bastia 2+ goals

26%

Bastia 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Estac Troyes (draw refunded)

65%

Bastia (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Estac Troyes at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.98 · 106 matches

Bastia away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.33 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Estac Troyes attack 1.57 + Bastia defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.45

Bastia attack 1.03 + Estac Troyes defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Estac Troyes scores more

47%

level

27%

Bastia scores more

26%

Estac Troyes at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Estac Troyes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

R. Saïd

Estac Troyes · M

8.0

Match Events

12'

32'

36'

46'

46'

53'

60'

61'

62'

M. Blé← J. Sebas

62'

A. Aiki← C. Inao Oulaï

72'

J. Assoumou← P. Ba

81'

Tom Ducrocq

82'

M. Detourbet← R. Saïd

82'

A. Kanté← A. Phliponeau

82'

F. Bohnert← T. Meynadier

89'

X. Chavalerin← M. Diop

90+4'

Abdoulaye Kanté

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

EstacBastia

Overview

49%Possession51%

13Total Shots11

4Corners6

13Fouls16

Shots

13Total Shots11

5On Target4

5Off Target5

3Blocked2

10Inside Box7

3Outside Box4

Passing

49%Possession51%

426Total Passes445

372Accurate Passes382

87%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

13Fouls16

3Yellow Cards3

4Offsides0