Bastia 0–2 Estac Troyes: Result & Stats

Bastia

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Estac Troyes

T. Bentayeb 86'

R. Ripart 30'

1/10/2026

Coupe de France · Round of 32Stade Armand Cesari

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Bastia42%

×Draw27%

Estac Troyes31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BastiaExpected goals in this matchEstac Troyes

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.15

Bastia

1.39

Estac Troyes

1.15

Bastia creates 21% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 12 away

1.86

creates per match

1.58

0.71

allows per match

0.92

creates per match

Bastia

1.86

Estac Troyes

1.58

allows per match

Bastia

0.71

Estac Troyes

0.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bastia+0.00on par

Estac Troyes+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bastia ↓

Estac Troyes →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Bastia or draw

69%

Bastia or Estac Troyes

73%

Draw or Estac Troyes

58%

Winning margin

Bastia wins by 2+

20%

Estac Troyes wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Bastia 1+ goals

75%

Bastia 2+ goals

40%

Bastia 3+ goals

16%

Estac Troyes 1+ goals

68%

Estac Troyes 2+ goals

32%

Estac Troyes 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Bastia (draw refunded)

58%

Estac Troyes (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bastia at home — creates 1.86, concedes 0.71 · 7 matches

Estac Troyes away — creates 1.58, concedes 0.92 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bastia attack 1.86 + Estac Troyes defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.39

Estac Troyes attack 1.58 + Bastia defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Bastia scores more

42%

level

27%

Estac Troyes scores more

31%

Bastia at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Bastia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3

I. Boura

Estac Troyes · D

8.2

Match Events

24'

Juan Guevara

30'

R. Ripart↳ M. Adeline

42'

Jocelyn Janneh

45+3'

Mouhamed Diop

46'

M. Ble← J. Sebas

52'

52'

60'

62'

73'

73'

M. Petrignani← T. Ducrocq

73'

T. Bentayeb← R. Ripart

74'

M. El Idrissy← M. Adeline

86'

T. Bentayeb

87'

E. Odede← J. Assoumou

87'

A. Ouzenadji← I. Boura

88'

Z. Beltaief← Z. Ariss

88'

I. Karamoko← A. Zaouai

90'

L. Maronnier← Y. Titi

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BastiaEstac

Overview

55%Possession45%

5Total Shots5

0Corners4

19Fouls15

Shots

5Total Shots5

3On Target3

1Off Target2

1Blocked0

2Inside Box3

3Outside Box2

Passing

55%Possession45%

427Total Passes346

333Accurate Passes249

78%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

19Fouls15

5Yellow Cards1

1Red Cards0

Coupe de France: Bastia 0–2 Estac Troyes

Estac Troyes beat Bastia 2-0 in Coupe de France on January 10, 2026.

Goals: R. Ripart (30'), T. Bentayeb (86').

Bastia controlled possession (55%) and registered 5 shots to 5.

The match was played at Stade Armand Cesari in Bastia.

Bastia vs Estac Troyes — Coupe de France 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Coupe de France: Bastia 0–2 Estac Troyes