Estac Troyes 3–1 Angers: Result & Stats | Ligue 1

Estac Troyes

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Angers

W. Odobert 82'

Mama Baldé 61'

R. Ripart 12'

E. Palmer-Brown 67' (OG)

8/28/2022

Ligue 1 · Round 4Stade de l'Aube

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Estac Troyes42%

×Draw27%

Angers31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Estac TroyesExpected goals in this matchAngers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.09

Estac Troyes

1.33

Angers

1.09

Estac Troyes creates 22% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 120 away

1.00

creates per match

0.83

1.35

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Estac Troyes

1.00

Angers

0.83

allows per match

Estac Troyes

1.35

Angers

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Estac Troyes+0.00on par

Angers+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Estac Troyes ↓

Angers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Estac Troyes or draw

69%

Estac Troyes or Angers

73%

Draw or Angers

58%

Winning margin

Estac Troyes wins by 2+

19%

Angers wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Estac Troyes 1+ goals

74%

Estac Troyes 2+ goals

38%

Estac Troyes 3+ goals

15%

Angers 1+ goals

66%

Angers 2+ goals

30%

Angers 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Estac Troyes (draw refunded)

58%

Angers (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Estac Troyes at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.35 · 40 matches

Angers away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.67 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Estac Troyes attack 1.00 + Angers defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.33

Angers attack 0.83 + Estac Troyes defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Estac Troyes scores more

42%

level

27%

Angers scores more

31%

Estac Troyes at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Estac Troyes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

P. Bernardoni

Angers · G

8.3

Match Events

11'

Batista Mendy

12'

R. Ripart↳ Rony Lopes

21'

21'

31'

45'

45+3'

Thierno BaldéGoal cancelled

46'

I. Chetti← M. Blažič

46'

A. Bamba← S. Doumbia

59'

W. Odobert← Rony Lopes

59'

Mama Baldé← I. Ugbo

61'

Mama Baldé↳ R. Kouamé

66'

W. Taibi← P. Capelle

66'

A. Salama← S. Boufal

67'

E. Palmer-BrownOwn goal

69'

P. Yade← R. Ripart

69'

T. Dingomé← Y. Larouci

71'

Waniss Taibi

81'

A. Sima← S. Thioub

82'

W. Odobert↳ P. Yade

84'

X. Chavalerin← F. Tardieu

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

EstacAngers

Overview

49%Possession51%

25Total Shots7

8Corners3

8Fouls12

Shots

25Total Shots7

11On Target2

12Off Target4

2Blocked1

10Inside Box4

15Outside Box3

Passing

49%Possession51%

514Total Passes541

442Accurate Passes467

86%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

1Saves8

Discipline

8Fouls12

2Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards1

3Offsides1