Angers 2–1 Estac Troyes: Result & Stats | Ligue 1

Angers

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Estac Troyes

L. Rao-Lisoa 90'

H. Abdelli 38'

X. Chavalerin 13'

5/27/2023

Ligue 1 · Round 37Stade Raymond-Kopa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Angers47%

×Draw24%

Estac Troyes29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AngersExpected goals in this matchEstac Troyes

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.27

Angers

1.69

Estac Troyes

1.27

Angers creates 33% more chances

Season form · 121 home / 38 away

1.14

creates per match

1.16

1.37

allows per match

2.24

creates per match

Angers

1.14

Estac Troyes

1.16

allows per match

Angers

1.37

Estac Troyes

2.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Angers+0.00on par

Estac Troyes+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Angers ↓

Estac Troyes →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Angers or draw

71%

Angers or Estac Troyes

76%

Draw or Estac Troyes

53%

Winning margin

Angers wins by 2+

25%

Estac Troyes wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Angers 1+ goals

82%

Angers 2+ goals

50%

Angers 3+ goals

24%

Estac Troyes 1+ goals

72%

Estac Troyes 2+ goals

36%

Estac Troyes 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Angers (draw refunded)

62%

Estac Troyes (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Angers at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.37 · 121 matches

Estac Troyes away — creates 1.16, concedes 2.24 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Angers attack 1.14 + Estac Troyes defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 1.69

Estac Troyes attack 1.16 + Angers defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Angers scores more

47%

level

24%

Estac Troyes scores more

29%

Angers at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Angers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

H. Abdelli

Angers · M

8.3

Match Events

13'

X. Chavalerin↳ Y. Larouci

27'

38'

46'

60'

64'

M. Blažič← C. Hountondji

67'

Ibrahima Niane

67'

L. Diony← I. Niane

78'

Rominigue Kouamé

82'

L. Rao-Lisoa← S. Thioub

82'

F. El Melali← H. Šabanović

83'

A. Bruus← I. Ugbo

90'

L. Rao-Lisoa↳ P. Capelle

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AngersEstac

Overview

60%Possession40%

18Total Shots5

1.26Expected Goals (xG)0.32

14Corners3

12Fouls7

Shots

18Total Shots5

5On Target3

7Off Target2

6Blocked0

9Inside Box5

9Outside Box0

Passing

60%Possession40%

473Total Passes313

394Accurate Passes231

83%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

12Fouls7

1Yellow Cards1

2Offsides1