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Angers vs Estac Troyes — Ligue 2 2018

Angers
Angers
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Estac Troyes
Estac Troyes
4/20/2024Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 33Stade Raymond Kopa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Angers47%
×Draw27%
Estac Troyes26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Angers
1.38
Estac Troyes
0.96

Angers creates 44% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 105 away

creates per match

Angers
1.78
Estac Troyes
1.14

allows per match

Angers
0.78
Estac Troyes
0.98

finishing

Angers+0.00on par
Estac Troyes+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Angers ↓

Estac Troyes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Angers or draw
74%
Angers or Estac Troyes
73%
Draw or Estac Troyes
53%

Winning margin

Angers wins by 2+
22%
Estac Troyes wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Angers 1+ goals
75%
Angers 2+ goals
40%
Angers 3+ goals
16%
Estac Troyes 1+ goals
62%
Estac Troyes 2+ goals
25%
Estac Troyes 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Angers (draw refunded)
64%
Estac Troyes (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Angers at home — creates 1.78, concedes 0.78 · 23 matches

Estac Troyes away — creates 1.14, concedes 0.98 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Angers attack 1.78 + Estac Troyes defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.38

Estac Troyes attack 1.14 + Angers defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Angers scores more
47%
level
27%
Estac Troyes scores more
26%

Angers at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Angers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 2: Angers 2–1 Estac Troyes

Angers beat Estac Troyes 2-1 in Ligue 2 on April 20, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Raymond Kopa in Angers.