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ESMTK vs Cegledi VSE — NB III - Southeast 2023

ESMTK
ESMTK
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Cegledi VSE
Cegledi VSE
7/30/2023NB III - SoutheastNB III - Southeast · Southeast - 1ESMTK Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

ESMTK76%
×Draw15%
Cegledi VSE10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ESMTK
2.71
Cegledi VSE
0.86

ESMTK creates 215% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 15 away

creates per match

ESMTK
2.22
Cegledi VSE
1.13

allows per match

ESMTK
0.60
Cegledi VSE
3.20

finishing

ESMTK+0.00on par
Cegledi VSE+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ESMTK ↓

Cegledi VSE →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–16%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

ESMTK or draw
90%
ESMTK or Cegledi VSE
85%
Draw or Cegledi VSE
24%

Winning margin

ESMTK wins by 2+
55%
Cegledi VSE wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

ESMTK 1+ goals
93%
ESMTK 2+ goals
75%
ESMTK 3+ goals
50%
Cegledi VSE 1+ goals
58%
Cegledi VSE 2+ goals
21%
Cegledi VSE 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

ESMTK (draw refunded)
89%
Cegledi VSE (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ESMTK at home — creates 2.22, concedes 0.60 · 45 matches

Cegledi VSE away — creates 1.13, concedes 3.20 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ESMTK attack 2.22 + Cegledi VSE defence 3.20 → ÷2 → 2.71

Cegledi VSE attack 1.13 + ESMTK defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

ESMTK scores more
76%
level
15%
Cegledi VSE scores more
10%

ESMTK at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "ESMTK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Southeast: ESMTK 2–2 Cegledi VSE

ESMTK and Cegledi VSE drew 2-2 in NB III - Southeast on July 30, 2023.

The match was played at ESMTK Stadion in Budapest.