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Cegledi VSE vs ESMTK — NB III - Southeast 2023

Cegledi VSE
Cegledi VSE
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
ESMTK
ESMTK
11/18/2023NB III - SoutheastNB III - Southeast · Southeast - 16Malomtó széli sporttelep

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Cegledi VSE10%
×Draw14%
ESMTK76%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cegledi VSE
0.98
ESMTK
2.88

ESMTK creates 194% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 45 away

creates per match

Cegledi VSE
0.80
ESMTK
2.29

allows per match

Cegledi VSE
3.47
ESMTK
1.16

finishing

Cegledi VSE+0.00on par
ESMTK+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cegledi VSE ↓

ESMTK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–16%
0–29%
0–39%
0–46%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–29%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–24%
2–34%
2–43%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Cegledi VSE or draw
24%
Cegledi VSE or ESMTK
86%
Draw or ESMTK
90%

Winning margin

Cegledi VSE wins by 2+
3%
ESMTK wins by 2+
55%

Team goals

Cegledi VSE 1+ goals
62%
Cegledi VSE 2+ goals
26%
Cegledi VSE 3+ goals
8%
ESMTK 1+ goals
94%
ESMTK 2+ goals
78%
ESMTK 3+ goals
54%

Draw no bet

Cegledi VSE (draw refunded)
12%
ESMTK (draw refunded)
88%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cegledi VSE at home — creates 0.80, concedes 3.47 · 15 matches

ESMTK away — creates 2.29, concedes 1.16 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cegledi VSE attack 0.80 + ESMTK defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 0.98

ESMTK attack 2.29 + Cegledi VSE defence 3.47 → ÷2 → 2.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Cegledi VSE scores more
10%
level
14%
ESMTK scores more
76%

ESMTK at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "ESMTK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Southeast: Cegledi VSE 1–3 ESMTK

ESMTK beat Cegledi VSE 3-1 in NB III - Southeast on November 18, 2023.

The match was played at Malomtó széli sporttelep in Cegléd.