Cegledi VSE 0–2 ESMTK: Result & Stats

Cegledi VSE

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

ESMTK

4/3/2022

NB III - Northwest · Közép - 28Malomtó széli sporttelep

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Cegledi VSE29%

×Draw25%

ESMTK47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cegledi VSEExpected goals in this matchESMTK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.62

Cegledi VSE

1.21

ESMTK

1.62

ESMTK creates 34% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 55 away

1.19

creates per match

1.27

1.97

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Cegledi VSE

1.19

ESMTK

1.27

allows per match

Cegledi VSE

1.97

ESMTK

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cegledi VSE+0.00on par

ESMTK+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cegledi VSE ↓

ESMTK →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Cegledi VSE or draw

53%

Cegledi VSE or ESMTK

75%

Draw or ESMTK

71%

Winning margin

Cegledi VSE wins by 2+

12%

ESMTK wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Cegledi VSE 1+ goals

70%

Cegledi VSE 2+ goals

34%

Cegledi VSE 3+ goals

12%

ESMTK 1+ goals

80%

ESMTK 2+ goals

48%

ESMTK 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Cegledi VSE (draw refunded)

38%

ESMTK (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cegledi VSE at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.97 · 37 matches

ESMTK away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.24 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cegledi VSE attack 1.19 + ESMTK defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.21

ESMTK attack 1.27 + Cegledi VSE defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Cegledi VSE scores more

29%

level

25%

ESMTK scores more

47%

ESMTK at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "ESMTK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff