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Esenler Erokspor vs Amed — 1. Lig 2018

Esenler Erokspor
Esenler Erokspor
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Amed
Amed
3/1/20251. Lig1. Lig · Round 27Esenler Erokspor Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Esenler Erokspor44%
×Draw26%
Amed31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Esenler Erokspor
1.49
Amed
1.21

Esenler Erokspor creates 23% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 38 away

creates per match

Esenler Erokspor
1.77
Amed
1.34

allows per match

Esenler Erokspor
1.08
Amed
1.21

finishing

Esenler Erokspor+0.00on par
Amed+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Esenler Erokspor ↓

Amed →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Esenler Erokspor or draw
69%
Esenler Erokspor or Amed
74%
Draw or Amed
56%

Winning margin

Esenler Erokspor wins by 2+
21%
Amed wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Esenler Erokspor 1+ goals
77%
Esenler Erokspor 2+ goals
44%
Esenler Erokspor 3+ goals
19%
Amed 1+ goals
70%
Amed 2+ goals
34%
Amed 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Esenler Erokspor (draw refunded)
59%
Amed (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Esenler Erokspor at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.08 · 39 matches

Amed away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.21 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Esenler Erokspor attack 1.77 + Amed defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.49

Amed attack 1.34 + Esenler Erokspor defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Esenler Erokspor scores more
44%
level
26%
Amed scores more
31%

Esenler Erokspor at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Esenler Erokspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Lig: Esenler Erokspor 1–1 Amed

Esenler Erokspor and Amed drew 1-1 in 1. Lig on March 1, 2025.

The match was played at Esenler Erokspor Stadyumu in İstanbul.