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Amed vs Esenler Erokspor — 1. Lig 2018

Amed
Amed
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Esenler Erokspor
Esenler Erokspor
10/6/20241. Lig1. Lig · Round 8Corendon Airlines Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Amed44%
×Draw25%
Esenler Erokspor31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Amed
1.55
Esenler Erokspor
1.26

Amed creates 23% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 38 away

creates per match

Amed
1.92
Esenler Erokspor
1.71

allows per match

Amed
0.82
Esenler Erokspor
1.18

finishing

Amed+0.00on par
Esenler Erokspor+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Amed ↓

Esenler Erokspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Amed or draw
69%
Amed or Esenler Erokspor
75%
Draw or Esenler Erokspor
56%

Winning margin

Amed wins by 2+
22%
Esenler Erokspor wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Amed 1+ goals
79%
Amed 2+ goals
46%
Amed 3+ goals
20%
Esenler Erokspor 1+ goals
72%
Esenler Erokspor 2+ goals
36%
Esenler Erokspor 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Amed (draw refunded)
59%
Esenler Erokspor (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Amed at home — creates 1.92, concedes 0.82 · 38 matches

Esenler Erokspor away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.18 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Amed attack 1.92 + Esenler Erokspor defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.55

Esenler Erokspor attack 1.71 + Amed defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Amed scores more
44%
level
25%
Esenler Erokspor scores more
31%

Amed at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Amed will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Amed vs Esenler Erokspor

Esenler Erokspor beat Amed 4-0 in 1. Lig on October 6, 2024.

The match was played at Corendon Airlines Park in Antalya.