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Amed vs Esenler Erokspor — League #205 2026

Amed
Amed
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Esenler Erokspor
Esenler Erokspor
4/8/2023League #205League #205 · Beyaz - 31Diyarbakır Yeni Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Amed60%
×Draw23%
Esenler Erokspor17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Amed
1.75
Esenler Erokspor
0.80

Amed creates 119% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 7 away

creates per match

Amed
2.50
Esenler Erokspor
0.86

allows per match

Amed
0.75
Esenler Erokspor
1.00

finishing

Amed+0.00on par
Esenler Erokspor+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Amed ↓

Esenler Erokspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Amed or draw
83%
Amed or Esenler Erokspor
77%
Draw or Esenler Erokspor
40%

Winning margin

Amed wins by 2+
34%
Esenler Erokspor wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Amed 1+ goals
83%
Amed 2+ goals
52%
Amed 3+ goals
25%
Esenler Erokspor 1+ goals
55%
Esenler Erokspor 2+ goals
19%
Esenler Erokspor 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Amed (draw refunded)
78%
Esenler Erokspor (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Amed at home — creates 2.50, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

Esenler Erokspor away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Amed attack 2.50 + Esenler Erokspor defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.75

Esenler Erokspor attack 0.86 + Amed defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Amed scores more
60%
level
23%
Esenler Erokspor scores more
17%

Amed at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Amed will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #205: Amed 1–0 Esenler Erokspor

Amed beat Esenler Erokspor 1-0 in League #205 on April 8, 2023.

The match was played at Diyarbakır Yeni Stadyumu in Diyarbakır.