Erzgebirge AUE 1–0 FC Ingolstadt 04: Result & Stats

Erzgebirge AUE

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

FC Ingolstadt 04

O. Sijarić 62'

10/22/2021

2. Bundesliga · Round 11Erzgebirgsstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Erzgebirge AUE38%

×Draw26%

FC Ingolstadt 0436%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Erzgebirge AUEExpected goals in this matchFC Ingolstadt 04

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.31

Erzgebirge AUE

1.35

FC Ingolstadt 04

1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 70 home / 59 away

1.33

creates per match

1.12

1.50

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Erzgebirge AUE

1.33

FC Ingolstadt 04

1.12

allows per match

Erzgebirge AUE

1.50

FC Ingolstadt 04

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Erzgebirge AUE+0.00on par

FC Ingolstadt 04+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Erzgebirge AUE ↓

FC Ingolstadt 04 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Erzgebirge AUE or draw

64%

Erzgebirge AUE or FC Ingolstadt 04

74%

Draw or FC Ingolstadt 04

62%

Winning margin

Erzgebirge AUE wins by 2+

17%

FC Ingolstadt 04 wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Erzgebirge AUE 1+ goals

74%

Erzgebirge AUE 2+ goals

39%

Erzgebirge AUE 3+ goals

15%

FC Ingolstadt 04 1+ goals

73%

FC Ingolstadt 04 2+ goals

38%

FC Ingolstadt 04 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Erzgebirge AUE (draw refunded)

51%

FC Ingolstadt 04 (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Erzgebirge AUE at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.50 · 70 matches

FC Ingolstadt 04 away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.36 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Erzgebirge AUE attack 1.33 + FC Ingolstadt 04 defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.35

FC Ingolstadt 04 attack 1.12 + Erzgebirge AUE defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Erzgebirge AUE scores more

38%

level

26%

FC Ingolstadt 04 scores more

36%

Erzgebirge AUE at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Erzgebirge AUE will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

D. Nazarov

Erzgebirge AUE · F

7.7

Match Events

34'

Sören Gonther

35'

F. Kaya← D. Eckert

53'

O. Sijarić← B. Zolinski

59'

M. Röhl← D. Linsmayer

60'

J. Hochscheidt← N. Kühn

61'

62'

74'

79'

81'

M. Beister← F. Bilbija

84'

N. Trujić← D. Nazarov

89'

Clemens Fandrich

90+3'

Stefan Kutschke

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ErzgebirgeFC

Overview

57%Possession43%

15Total Shots9

7Corners3

11Fouls11

Shots

15Total Shots9

5On Target1

5Off Target3

5Blocked5

11Inside Box5

4Outside Box4

Passing

57%Possession43%

367Total Passes288

239Accurate Passes178

65%Pass Accuracy62%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

11Fouls11

3Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards0

2Offsides2