Envigado 2–0 Independiente Medellin: Result & Stats

Envigado

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Independiente Medellin

J. Mosquera 73'

W. De La Rosa 26'

5/6/2018

Primera A · Apertura - 19Estadio Polideportivo Sur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 152+ matches

Envigado39%

×Draw28%

Independiente Medellin33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EnvigadoExpected goals in this matchIndependiente Medellin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.12

Envigado

1.23

Independiente Medellin

1.12

Envigado creates 10% more chances

Season form · 152 home / 183 away

1.11

creates per match

1.15

1.09

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Envigado

1.11

Independiente Medellin

1.15

allows per match

Envigado

1.09

Independiente Medellin

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Envigado+0.00on par

Independiente Medellin+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Envigado ↓

Independiente Medellin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Envigado or draw

67%

Envigado or Independiente Medellin

72%

Draw or Independiente Medellin

61%

Winning margin

Envigado wins by 2+

17%

Independiente Medellin wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Envigado 1+ goals

71%

Envigado 2+ goals

35%

Envigado 3+ goals

13%

Independiente Medellin 1+ goals

67%

Independiente Medellin 2+ goals

31%

Independiente Medellin 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Envigado (draw refunded)

54%

Independiente Medellin (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Envigado at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.09 · 152 matches

Independiente Medellin away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.34 · 183 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Envigado attack 1.11 + Independiente Medellin defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.23

Independiente Medellin attack 1.15 + Envigado defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Envigado scores more

39%

level

28%

Independiente Medellin scores more

33%

Envigado at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Envigado will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18

J. Mosquera

Envigado · M

7.8

Match Events

26'

W. De La Rosa↳ Y. Guzmán

31'

L. Rodríguez← C. Mancilla

54'

J. Calle← B. Angulo

55'

Cristian Arrieta

63'

J. Hernández← D. Restrepo

65'

Luis Rodríguez

67'

M. López← Y. Guzmán

73'

J. Mosquera↳ D. Londoño

76'

J. Caicedo← M. Gómez

77'

D. Moreno← J. Mosquera

86'

Cristian Arrieta

86'

Cristian Arrieta

90'

Gabriel Díaz

90'

Julián Lemos

90'

Germán Cano

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

EnvigadoIndependiente

Overview

53%Possession47%

11Total Shots13

2Corners2

14Fouls12

Shots

11Total Shots13

3On Target2

5Off Target10

3Blocked1

7Inside Box7

4Outside Box6

Passing

53%Possession47%

447Total Passes379

354Accurate Passes301

79%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

14Fouls12

3Yellow Cards3

1Red Cards0

1Offsides1