Enisey 1–0 Krylya Sovetov: Result & Stats | Cup

Enisey

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Krylya Sovetov

10/27/2021

Cup · Group Stage - 4Central'nyj Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Enisey49%

×Draw24%

Krylya Sovetov27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EniseyExpected goals in this matchKrylya Sovetov

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.18

Enisey

1.67

Krylya Sovetov

1.18

Enisey creates 42% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 19 away

1.67

creates per match

1.53

0.83

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

Enisey

1.67

Krylya Sovetov

1.53

allows per match

Enisey

0.83

Krylya Sovetov

1.68

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Enisey+0.00on par

Krylya Sovetov+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Enisey ↓

Krylya Sovetov →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Enisey or draw

73%

Enisey or Krylya Sovetov

76%

Draw or Krylya Sovetov

51%

Winning margin

Enisey wins by 2+

26%

Krylya Sovetov wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Enisey 1+ goals

81%

Enisey 2+ goals

50%

Enisey 3+ goals

23%

Krylya Sovetov 1+ goals

69%

Krylya Sovetov 2+ goals

33%

Krylya Sovetov 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Enisey (draw refunded)

64%

Krylya Sovetov (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Enisey at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

Krylya Sovetov away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.68 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Enisey attack 1.67 + Krylya Sovetov defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.67

Krylya Sovetov attack 1.53 + Enisey defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Enisey scores more

49%

level

24%

Krylya Sovetov scores more

27%

Enisey at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Enisey will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff