Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Enisey vs Krylya Sovetov — Premier League 2018

Enisey
Enisey
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Krylya Sovetov
Krylya Sovetov
8/27/2018Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 5Geolog Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Enisey40%
×Draw26%
Krylya Sovetov34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Enisey
1.36
Krylya Sovetov
1.23

Enisey creates 11% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 106 away

creates per match

Enisey
0.94
Krylya Sovetov
1.03

allows per match

Enisey
1.44
Krylya Sovetov
1.79

finishing

Enisey+0.00on par
Krylya Sovetov+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Enisey ↓

Krylya Sovetov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Enisey or draw
66%
Enisey or Krylya Sovetov
74%
Draw or Krylya Sovetov
60%

Winning margin

Enisey wins by 2+
18%
Krylya Sovetov wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Enisey 1+ goals
74%
Enisey 2+ goals
39%
Enisey 3+ goals
16%
Krylya Sovetov 1+ goals
71%
Krylya Sovetov 2+ goals
35%
Krylya Sovetov 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Enisey (draw refunded)
54%
Krylya Sovetov (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Enisey at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.44 · 16 matches

Krylya Sovetov away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.79 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Enisey attack 0.94 + Krylya Sovetov defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.36

Krylya Sovetov attack 1.03 + Enisey defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Enisey scores more
40%
level
26%
Krylya Sovetov scores more
34%

Enisey at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Enisey will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Enisey vs Krylya Sovetov

Enisey beat Krylya Sovetov 1-0 in Premier League on August 27, 2018.

The match was played at Geolog Stadium in Tyumen.