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Enisey vs Krylya Sovetov — First League 2018

Enisey
Enisey
FT
3 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Krylya Sovetov
Krylya Sovetov
8/30/2020First LeagueFirst League · Round 6Central'nyj Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Enisey34%
×Draw27%
Krylya Sovetov39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Enisey
1.18
Krylya Sovetov
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 124 home / 22 away

creates per match

Enisey
1.50
Krylya Sovetov
1.55

allows per match

Enisey
1.00
Krylya Sovetov
0.86

finishing

Enisey+0.00on par
Krylya Sovetov+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Enisey ↓

Krylya Sovetov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Enisey or draw
61%
Enisey or Krylya Sovetov
73%
Draw or Krylya Sovetov
66%

Winning margin

Enisey wins by 2+
14%
Krylya Sovetov wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Enisey 1+ goals
69%
Enisey 2+ goals
33%
Enisey 3+ goals
12%
Krylya Sovetov 1+ goals
72%
Krylya Sovetov 2+ goals
36%
Krylya Sovetov 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Enisey (draw refunded)
47%
Krylya Sovetov (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Enisey at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.00 · 124 matches

Krylya Sovetov away — creates 1.55, concedes 0.86 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Enisey attack 1.50 + Krylya Sovetov defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.18

Krylya Sovetov attack 1.55 + Enisey defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Enisey scores more
34%
level
27%
Krylya Sovetov scores more
39%

Krylya Sovetov at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Krylya Sovetov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Enisey 3–1 Krylya Sovetov

Enisey beat Krylya Sovetov 3-1 in First League on August 30, 2020.

The match was played at Central'nyj Stadion in Krasnoyarsk.