England 1–0 Croatia: Result & Stats

England

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Croatia

R. Sterling 57'

6/13/2021

Euro Championship · Group D - 1Wembley Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

England74%

×Draw17%

Croatia9%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EnglandExpected goals in this matchCroatia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.21

0.62

England

2.21

Croatia

0.62

England creates 256% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 7 away

3.00

creates per match

0.86

0.38

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

England

3.00

Croatia

0.86

allows per match

England

0.38

Croatia

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

England+0.00on par

Croatia+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

England ↓

Croatia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–18%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–015%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–011%

3–17%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (15%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

England or draw

91%

England or Croatia

83%

Draw or Croatia

26%

Winning margin

England wins by 2+

49%

Croatia wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

England 1+ goals

89%

England 2+ goals

65%

England 3+ goals

38%

Croatia 1+ goals

46%

Croatia 2+ goals

13%

Croatia 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

England (draw refunded)

89%

Croatia (draw refunded)

11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

England at home — creates 3.00, concedes 0.38 · 8 matches

Croatia away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.43 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

England attack 3.00 + Croatia defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 2.21

Croatia attack 0.86 + England defence 0.38 → ÷2 → 0.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

England scores more

74%

level

17%

Croatia scores more

9%

England at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "England will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14

Kalvin Phillips

England · M

7.5

Match Events

42'

D. Caleta-Car

48'

M. Kovacic

57'

R. Sterling↳ K. Phillips

64'

P. Foden

66'

M. Brozovic

70'

J. Brekalo← A. Kramarić

70'

N. Vlašić← M. Brozović

71'

M. Rashford← P. Foden

78'

B. Petković← A. Rebić

82'

J. Bellingham← H. Kane

85'

M. Pašalić← M. Kovačić

90+2'

D. Calvert-Lewin← R. Sterling

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

EnglandCroatia

Overview

50%Possession50%

8Total Shots8

1Corners1

9Fouls10

Shots

8Total Shots8

2On Target2

4Off Target5

2Blocked1

4Inside Box4

4Outside Box4

Passing

50%Possession50%

454Total Passes458

381Accurate Passes384

84%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

9Fouls10

1Yellow Cards3

2Offsides2