England 2–1 Croatia: Result & Stats

England

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Croatia

Harry Kane 85'

Jesse Lingard 78'

Andrej Kramarić 57'

11/18/2018

UEFA Nations League · League A - 6Wembley Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

England55%

×Draw21%

Croatia24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EnglandExpected goals in this matchCroatia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.04

1.27

England

2.04

Croatia

1.27

England creates 61% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 11 away

1.82

creates per match

1.27

allows per match

2.27

creates per match

England

1.82

Croatia

1.27

allows per match

England

1.27

Croatia

2.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

England+0.00on par

Croatia+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

England ↓

Croatia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

England or draw

76%

England or Croatia

79%

Draw or Croatia

45%

Winning margin

England wins by 2+

33%

Croatia wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

England 1+ goals

87%

England 2+ goals

60%

England 3+ goals

33%

Croatia 1+ goals

72%

Croatia 2+ goals

36%

Croatia 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

England (draw refunded)

70%

Croatia (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

England at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.27 · 11 matches

Croatia away — creates 1.27, concedes 2.27 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

England attack 1.82 + Croatia defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 2.04

Croatia attack 1.27 + England defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

England scores more

55%

level

21%

Croatia scores more

24%

England at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "England will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'

Ross Barkley

26'

Antonio Milić← Šime Vrsaljko

46'

Josip Brekalo← Ante Rebić

57'

Andrej Kramarić

63'

Dele Alli← Ross Barkley

67'

Marcelo Brozović

68'

Tin Jedvaj

73'

Jadon Sancho← Marcus Rashford

73'

Jesse Lingard← Fabian Delph

78'

Jesse Lingard↳ Harry Kane

79'

Marko Rog← Nikola Vlašić

85'

Harry Kane↳ Ben Chilwell

89'

Dejan Lovren

Possession

Shots

Statistics

EnglandCroatia

Overview

65%Possession35%

10Total Shots10

9Corners4

9Fouls11

Shots

10Total Shots10

7On Target4

3Off Target6

Passing

65%Possession35%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

9Fouls11

1Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards0

3Offsides2