Croatia 1–1 England: Result & Stats | World Cup

Croatia

AET

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

England

M. Mandžukić 109'

I. Perišić 68'

K. Trippier 5'

7/11/2018

World Cup · Semi-finalsStadion Luzhniki

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Croatia41%

×Draw24%

England35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CroatiaExpected goals in this matchEngland

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.43

Croatia

1.56

England

1.43

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 8 away

2.00

creates per match

2.25

0.60

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Croatia

2.00

England

2.25

allows per match

Croatia

0.60

England

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Croatia+0.00on par

England+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Croatia ↓

England →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Croatia or draw

65%

Croatia or England

76%

Draw or England

59%

Winning margin

Croatia wins by 2+

20%

England wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Croatia 1+ goals

79%

Croatia 2+ goals

46%

Croatia 3+ goals

21%

England 1+ goals

76%

England 2+ goals

42%

England 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Croatia (draw refunded)

54%

England (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Croatia at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

England away — creates 2.25, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Croatia attack 2.00 + England defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.56

England attack 2.25 + Croatia defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Croatia scores more

41%

level

24%

England scores more

35%

Croatia at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Croatia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

I. Perišić

Croatia · M

8.9

Match Events

5'

K. Trippier

48'

Mario Mandžukić

54'

Kyle Walker

68'

I. Perišić↳ Š. Vrsaljko

74'

M. Rashford← R. Sterling

90'

D. Rose← A. Young

95'

J. Pivarić← I. Strinić

96'

Ante Rebić

97'

E. Dier← J. Henderson

101'

A. Kramarić← A. Rebić

109'

M. Mandžukić↳ I. Perišić

112'

J. Vardy← K. Walker

115'

V. Ćorluka← M. Mandžukić

119'

M. Badelj← L. Modrić

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CroatiaEngland

Overview

55%Possession45%

22Total Shots11

8Corners4

23Fouls14

Shots

22Total Shots11

7On Target2

11Off Target6

4Blocked3

12Inside Box6

10Outside Box5

Passing

55%Possession45%

590Total Passes497

474Accurate Passes379

80%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

0Saves5

Discipline

23Fouls14

2Yellow Cards1

1Offsides3