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Empoli vs Pescara — Serie B 2018

Empoli
Empoli
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Pescara
Pescara
J. Dezi 44'
C. Galano 32'
D. Bettella 19'
11/9/2019Serie BSerie B · Round 12Stadio Carlo Castellani

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Empoli50%
×Draw24%
Pescara26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Empoli
1.71
Pescara
1.16

Empoli creates 47% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 10 away

creates per match

Empoli
1.72
Pescara
1.40

allows per match

Empoli
0.92
Pescara
1.69

finishing

Empoli-0.26scores less
Pescara+0.10scores more

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Empoli ↓

Pescara →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Empoli or draw
74%
Empoli or Pescara
76%
Draw or Pescara
50%

Winning margin

Empoli wins by 2+
27%
Pescara wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Empoli 1+ goals
82%
Empoli 2+ goals
51%
Empoli 3+ goals
24%
Pescara 1+ goals
69%
Pescara 2+ goals
32%
Pescara 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Empoli (draw refunded)
66%
Pescara (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Empoli at home — creates 1.72, concedes 0.92 · 13 matches

Pescara away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.69 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Empoli attack 1.72 + Pescara defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.71

Pescara attack 1.40 + Empoli defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Empoli scores more
50%
level
24%
Pescara scores more
26%

Empoli at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Empoli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

29
J. BalkovecEmpoliEmpoli · D
7.9

Match Events

19'
D. Bettella↳ L. Memushaj
32'
C. Galano↳ Pepín
37'
Samuele Ricci
44'
J. Dezi
58'
K. Laribi← F. Bandinelli
58'
G. Kastanos← L. Palmiero
68'
M. Brunori Sandri← G. Borrelli
69'
L. Štulac← S. Ricci
77'
M. Drudi← Pepín
78'
Leo Štulac
80'
D. Merola← J. Dezi

Possession

54%Empoli

Shots

24Empoli

Pass accuracy

51%Empoli

Statistics

EmpoliPescara
Overview
54%Possession46%
24Total Shots9
3Corners4
25Fouls14
Shots
24Total Shots9
2On Target4
16Off Target3
6Blocked2
15Inside Box7
9Outside Box2
Passing
54%Possession46%
510Total Passes444
415Accurate Passes348
81%Pass Accuracy78%
Goalkeeping
3Saves1
Discipline
25Fouls14
2Yellow Cards0
1Offsides0

Match Recap: Empoli vs Pescara

Pescara beat Empoli 2-1 in Serie B on November 9, 2019.

Goals: D. Bettella (19'), C. Galano (32'), J. Dezi (44').

Empoli controlled possession (54%) and registered 24 shots to 9.

The match was played at Stadio Carlo Castellani in Empoli.