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Empoli vs Cagliari — Serie A 2026

Empoli
Empoli
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Cagliari
Cagliari
4/6/2025Serie ASerie A · Round 31Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Empoli40%
×Draw28%
Cagliari33%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Empoli
1.27
Cagliari
1.12

Empoli creates 13% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 27 away

creates per match

Empoli
0.89
Cagliari
0.90

allows per match

Empoli
1.34
Cagliari
1.66

finishing

Empoli-0.39scores less
Cagliari-0.01on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Empoli ↓

Cagliari →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Empoli or draw
67%
Empoli or Cagliari
72%
Draw or Cagliari
60%

Winning margin

Empoli wins by 2+
18%
Cagliari wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Empoli 1+ goals
72%
Empoli 2+ goals
36%
Empoli 3+ goals
14%
Cagliari 1+ goals
67%
Cagliari 2+ goals
31%
Cagliari 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Empoli (draw refunded)
55%
Cagliari (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Empoli at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.34 · 6 matches

Cagliari away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.66 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Empoli attack 0.89 + Cagliari defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.27

Cagliari attack 0.90 + Empoli defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Empoli scores more
40%
level
28%
Cagliari scores more
33%

Empoli at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Empoli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

99
S. EspositoEmpoliEmpoli · F
7.7

Match Events

49'
Sebastiano Luperto
59'
F. Coman← Zito Luvumbo
59'
G. Gaetano← N. Viola
61'
José Luis Palomino
65'
T. Ebuehi← J. Sambia
70'
L. Colombo← C. Kouamé
72'
G. Zappa← J. Palomino
82'
L. Pavoletti← R. Piccoli
82'
A. Deiola← M. Prati
84'
O. Solbakken← S. Esposito
86'
Tommaso Augello
88'
Leonardo Pavoletti

Possession

45%Empoli

Shots

7Empoli

Pass accuracy

49%Empoli

Statistics

EmpoliCagliari
Overview
45%Possession55%
7Total Shots7
0.33Expected Goals (xG)0.26
2Corners3
9Fouls15
Shots
7Total Shots7
1On Target1
4Off Target4
2Blocked2
1Inside Box1
6Outside Box6
Passing
45%Possession55%
287Total Passes343
187Accurate Passes234
65%Pass Accuracy68%
Goalkeeping
1Saves1
0.15Goals Prevented0.15
Discipline
9Fouls15
0Yellow Cards4
1Offsides0

Serie A: Empoli 0–0 Cagliari

Empoli and Cagliari drew 0-0 in Serie A on April 6, 2025.

Cagliari controlled possession (55%) and registered 7 shots to 7.

The match was played at Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena in Empoli.