Empoli 0–1 Cagliari: Result & Stats | Serie A

Empoli

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Cagliari

J. Jankto 69'

3/3/2024

Serie A · Round 27Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Empoli42%

×Draw28%

Cagliari30%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EmpoliExpected goals in this matchCagliari

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.06

Empoli

1.31

Cagliari

1.06

Empoli creates 24% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 28 away

0.97

creates per match

0.89

1.23

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

Empoli

0.97

Cagliari

0.89

allows per match

Empoli

1.23

Cagliari

1.65

-0.54scores less than expected

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Empoli-0.54scores less

Cagliari+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Empoli ↓

Cagliari →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Empoli or draw

70%

Empoli or Cagliari

72%

Draw or Cagliari

58%

Winning margin

Empoli wins by 2+

19%

Cagliari wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Empoli 1+ goals

73%

Empoli 2+ goals

38%

Empoli 3+ goals

14%

Cagliari 1+ goals

65%

Cagliari 2+ goals

29%

Cagliari 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Empoli (draw refunded)

58%

Cagliari (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Empoli at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.23 · 7 matches

Cagliari away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.65 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Empoli attack 0.97 + Cagliari defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.31

Cagliari attack 0.89 + Empoli defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Empoli scores more

42%

level

28%

Cagliari scores more

30%

Empoli at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Empoli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

S. Scuffet

Cagliari · G

7.7

Match Events

17'

Gianluca Gaetano

32'

G. Zappa← Zito Luvumbo

58'

M. Niang← M. Destro

64'

Liberato CacaceGoal cancelled

69'

J. Jankto

72'

J. Fazzini← M. Cancellieri

72'

G. Pezzella← L. Cacace

72'

E. Gyasi← V. Kovalenko

77'

M. Wieteska← J. Jankto

78'

Paulo Azzi← T. Augello

79'

Yerry Mina

81'

A. Cerri← S. Walukiewicz

85'

Simone Scuffet

87'

E. Shomurodov← G. Gaetano

87'

K. Mutandwa← G. Lapadula

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

EmpoliCagliari

Overview

56%Possession44%

16Total Shots8

1.46Expected Goals (xG)0.57

9Corners2

11Fouls15

Shots

16Total Shots8

3On Target4

5Off Target2

8Blocked2

15Inside Box5

1Outside Box3

Passing

56%Possession44%

442Total Passes368

362Accurate Passes281

82%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

11Fouls15

0Yellow Cards3

3Offsides0