Cagliari 0–2 Empoli: Result & Stats | Serie A

Cagliari

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Empoli

S. Esposito 49'

L. Colombo 33'

9/20/2024

Serie A · Round 5Unipol Domus

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Cagliari47%

×Draw27%

Empoli26%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CagliariExpected goals in this matchEmpoli

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

0.96

Cagliari

1.41

Empoli

0.96

Cagliari creates 47% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 8 away

1.07

creates per match

0.70

1.23

allows per match

1.74

creates per match

Cagliari

1.07

Empoli

0.70

allows per match

Cagliari

1.23

Empoli

1.74

-0.01on par

finishing

+0.30scores more than expected

finishing

Cagliari-0.01on par

Empoli+0.30scores more

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cagliari ↓

Empoli →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Cagliari or draw

74%

Cagliari or Empoli

73%

Draw or Empoli

53%

Winning margin

Cagliari wins by 2+

23%

Empoli wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Cagliari 1+ goals

76%

Cagliari 2+ goals

41%

Cagliari 3+ goals

17%

Empoli 1+ goals

62%

Empoli 2+ goals

25%

Empoli 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Cagliari (draw refunded)

65%

Empoli (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cagliari at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.23 · 31 matches

Empoli away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.74 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cagliari attack 1.07 + Empoli defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.41

Empoli attack 0.70 + Cagliari defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Cagliari scores more

47%

level

27%

Empoli scores more

26%

Cagliari at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Cagliari will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

99

S. Esposito

Empoli · F

7.9

Match Events

12'

Lorenzo Colombo

33'

L. Colombo↳ T. Anjorin

46'

L. Pavoletti← A. Makoumbou

49'

S. Esposito

58'

N. Haas← T. Anjorin

60'

N. Viola← Zito Luvumbo

60'

Paulo Azzi← T. Augello

64'

Emmanuel Gyasi

71'

G. Gaetano← R. Marin

73'

O. Solbakken← L. Colombo

73'

L. Cacace← A. Grassi

75'

G. Lapadula← R. Piccoli

81'

Leonardo Pavoletti

90'

P. Pellegri← S. Esposito

90'

M. De Sciglio← E. Gyasi

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CagliariEmpoli

Overview

61%Possession39%

21Total Shots9

2.30Expected Goals (xG)0.84

10Corners4

15Fouls21

Shots

21Total Shots9

4On Target4

12Off Target3

5Blocked2

15Inside Box8

6Outside Box1

Passing

61%Possession39%

454Total Passes293

354Accurate Passes198

78%Pass Accuracy68%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

0.16Goals Prevented0.16

Discipline

15Fouls21

1Yellow Cards2

0Offsides2

Serie A: Cagliari 0–2 Empoli

Empoli beat Cagliari 2-0 in Serie A on September 20, 2024.

Goals: L. Colombo (33'), S. Esposito (49').

Cagliari controlled possession (61%) and registered 21 shots to 9.

The match was played at Unipol Domus in Cagliari.

Cagliari vs Empoli — Serie A 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie A: Cagliari 0–2 Empoli