Empoli 0–2 Atalanta: Result & Stats | Serie A

Empoli

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Atalanta

10/30/2022

Serie A · Round 12Stadio Carlo Castellani

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Empoli27%

×Draw23%

Atalanta50%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EmpoliExpected goals in this matchAtalanta

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.80

Empoli

1.27

Atalanta

1.80

Atalanta creates 42% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 135 away

1.46

creates per match

1.91

1.70

allows per match

1.07

creates per match

Empoli

1.46

Atalanta

1.91

allows per match

Empoli

1.70

Atalanta

1.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Empoli+0.00on par

Atalanta+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Empoli ↓

Atalanta →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–28%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Empoli or draw

50%

Empoli or Atalanta

77%

Draw or Atalanta

73%

Winning margin

Empoli wins by 2+

11%

Atalanta wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Empoli 1+ goals

72%

Empoli 2+ goals

36%

Empoli 3+ goals

14%

Atalanta 1+ goals

83%

Atalanta 2+ goals

54%

Atalanta 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

Empoli (draw refunded)

35%

Atalanta (draw refunded)

65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Empoli at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.70 · 57 matches

Atalanta away — creates 1.91, concedes 1.07 · 135 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Empoli attack 1.46 + Atalanta defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.27

Atalanta attack 1.91 + Empoli defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Empoli scores more

27%

level

23%

Atalanta scores more

50%

Atalanta at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Atalanta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff