Atalanta 0–0 Empoli: Result & Stats | Serie A

Atalanta

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Empoli

4/15/2019

Serie A · Round 32Stadio Atleti Azzurri d'Italia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Atalanta55%

×Draw23%

Empoli22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AtalantaExpected goals in this matchEmpoli

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

1.06

Atalanta

1.81

Empoli

1.06

Atalanta creates 71% more chances

Season form · 136 home / 62 away

2.06

creates per match

0.94

1.18

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Atalanta

2.06

Empoli

0.94

allows per match

Atalanta

1.18

Empoli

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atalanta+0.00on par

Empoli+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atalanta ↓

Empoli →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Atalanta or draw

78%

Atalanta or Empoli

77%

Draw or Empoli

45%

Winning margin

Atalanta wins by 2+

31%

Empoli wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Atalanta 1+ goals

84%

Atalanta 2+ goals

54%

Atalanta 3+ goals

27%

Empoli 1+ goals

65%

Empoli 2+ goals

29%

Empoli 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Atalanta (draw refunded)

71%

Empoli (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atalanta at home — creates 2.06, concedes 1.18 · 136 matches

Empoli away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.55 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atalanta attack 2.06 + Empoli defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.81

Empoli attack 0.94 + Atalanta defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Atalanta scores more

55%

level

23%

Empoli scores more

22%

Atalanta at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Atalanta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

69

B. Drągowski

Empoli · G

10.0

Match Events

14'

M. Pasqual← L. Antonelli

19'

José Luis Palomino

29'

Cristian Dell'Orco

41'

D. Oberlin← Diego Farias

45'

Ismaël Bennacer

60'

T. Castagne← R. Gosens

61'

Frédéric Veseli

79'

J. Rasmussen← D. Nikolaou

81'

M. Barrow← D. Zapata

88'

R. Piccoli← A. Gómez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AtalantaEmpoli

Overview

61%Possession39%

47Total Shots3

9Corners3

6Fouls11

Shots

47Total Shots3

18On Target1

18Off Target2

11Blocked0

33Inside Box2

14Outside Box1

Passing

61%Possession39%

569Total Passes364

501Accurate Passes279

88%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

1Saves17

Discipline

6Fouls11

1Yellow Cards3

1Offsides5