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Atalanta vs Empoli — Serie A 2018

Atalanta
Atalanta
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Empoli
Empoli
5/21/2022Serie ASerie A · Round 38Gewiss Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Atalanta55%
×Draw23%
Empoli22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atalanta
1.83
Empoli
1.07

Atalanta creates 71% more chances

Season form · 134 home / 57 away

creates per match

Atalanta
2.04
Empoli
0.96

allows per match

Atalanta
1.19
Empoli
1.61

finishing

Atalanta+0.00on par
Empoli+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atalanta ↓

Empoli →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Atalanta or draw
78%
Atalanta or Empoli
77%
Draw or Empoli
45%

Winning margin

Atalanta wins by 2+
31%
Empoli wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Atalanta 1+ goals
84%
Atalanta 2+ goals
54%
Atalanta 3+ goals
28%
Empoli 1+ goals
66%
Empoli 2+ goals
29%
Empoli 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Atalanta (draw refunded)
71%
Empoli (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atalanta at home — creates 2.04, concedes 1.19 · 134 matches

Empoli away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.61 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atalanta attack 2.04 + Empoli defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.83

Empoli attack 0.96 + Atalanta defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Atalanta scores more
55%
level
23%
Empoli scores more
22%

Atalanta at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Atalanta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie A: Atalanta 0–1 Empoli

Empoli beat Atalanta 1-0 in Serie A on May 21, 2022.

The match was played at Gewiss Stadium in Bergamo.