Empoli 3–2 Atalanta: Result & Stats | Serie A

Empoli

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Atalanta

M. Silvestre 90+2'

A. Masiello 77' (OG)

A. La Gumina 42'

H. Hateboer 40'

R. Freuler 33'

11/25/2018

Serie A · Round 13Carlo Castellani

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Empoli30%

×Draw26%

Atalanta44%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EmpoliExpected goals in this matchAtalanta

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.12

1.42

Empoli

1.12

Atalanta

1.42

Atalanta creates 27% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 31 away

1.01

creates per match

1.29

1.55

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Empoli

1.01

Atalanta

1.29

allows per match

Empoli

1.55

Atalanta

1.23

-0.41scores less than expected

finishing

+0.03on par

finishing

Empoli-0.41scores less

Atalanta+0.03on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Empoli ↓

Atalanta →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Empoli or draw

56%

Empoli or Atalanta

74%

Draw or Atalanta

70%

Winning margin

Empoli wins by 2+

12%

Atalanta wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Empoli 1+ goals

67%

Empoli 2+ goals

31%

Empoli 3+ goals

10%

Atalanta 1+ goals

76%

Atalanta 2+ goals

41%

Atalanta 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Empoli (draw refunded)

40%

Atalanta (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Empoli at home — creates 1.01, concedes 1.55 · 5 matches

Atalanta away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.23 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Empoli attack 1.01 + Atalanta defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.12

Atalanta attack 1.29 + Empoli defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Empoli scores more

30%

level

26%

Atalanta scores more

44%

Atalanta at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Atalanta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

26

M. Silvestre

Empoli · D

7.7

Match Events

24'

Frédéric Veseli

33'

R. Freuler

38'

Andrea Masiello

40'

H. Hateboer↳ D. Zapata

42'

A. La Gumina

46'

G. Mancini← Rafael Tolói

46'

M. Pašalić← D. Zapata

67'

Domenico Maietta

69'

Robin Gosens

72'

M. Zajc← R. Krunić

77'

A. MasielloOwn goal

84'

Josip Iličić

84'

Josip Iličić

85'

A. Acquah← H. Traorè

88'

J. Palomino← A. Masiello

89'

L. Mchedlidze← A. La Gumina

90+2'

M. Silvestre↳ M. Pasqual

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

EmpoliAtalanta

Overview

40%Possession60%

17Total Shots14

7Corners3

14Fouls11

Shots

17Total Shots14

7On Target5

6Off Target6

4Blocked3

9Inside Box10

8Outside Box4

Passing

40%Possession60%

372Total Passes553

294Accurate Passes469

79%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

3Saves5

Discipline

14Fouls11

2Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards1

2Offsides3