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Emmen vs De Graafschap — Eerste Divisie 2018

Emmen
Emmen
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
De Graafschap
De Graafschap
J. Kade 47'
F. Evina 9'
J. Hawkins 5'
11/25/2024Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 15De Oude Meerdijk

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Emmen42%
×Draw24%
De Graafschap34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Emmen
1.65
De Graafschap
1.46

Emmen creates 13% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 131 away

creates per match

Emmen
1.82
De Graafschap
1.68

allows per match

Emmen
1.25
De Graafschap
1.47

finishing

Emmen+0.00on par
De Graafschap+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Emmen ↓

De Graafschap →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Emmen or draw
66%
Emmen or De Graafschap
76%
Draw or De Graafschap
58%

Winning margin

Emmen wins by 2+
22%
De Graafschap wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Emmen 1+ goals
81%
Emmen 2+ goals
49%
Emmen 3+ goals
23%
De Graafschap 1+ goals
77%
De Graafschap 2+ goals
43%
De Graafschap 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Emmen (draw refunded)
55%
De Graafschap (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Emmen at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.25 · 76 matches

De Graafschap away — creates 1.68, concedes 1.47 · 131 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Emmen attack 1.82 + De Graafschap defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.65

De Graafschap attack 1.68 + Emmen defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Emmen scores more
42%
level
24%
De Graafschap scores more
34%

Emmen at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Emmen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

30
I. El KadiriDe GraafschapDe Graafschap · F
7.9

Match Events

5'
J. Hawkins↳ F. Wagner
7'
Dennis Vos
9'
Rowan Besselink
9'
F. Evina
34'
Pascal Mulder
46'
A. Sadiku← F. Evina
47'
J. Kade↳ K. Nsona
50'
Agon Sadiku
51'
Ibrahim El Kadiri
51'
Levi Schoppema
58'
M. Willemsen← R. Hillen
59'
Y. El Jebli← J. van de Haar
70'
Torben Rhein
75'
K. Kwint← D. Warmerdam
75'
T. Grotenhuis← L. Schoppema
78'
Jeffrey Fortes
81'
M. Martin← T. Rhein
86'
F. Quispel← F. Wagner
90+1'
G. Bolk← K. Nsona
90'
C. Landu← D. Vos

Possession

42%Emmen

Shots

13Emmen

Pass accuracy

49%Emmen

Statistics

EmmenDe
Overview
42%Possession58%
13Total Shots9
3Corners5
18Fouls13
Shots
13Total Shots9
7On Target2
2Off Target5
4Blocked2
12Inside Box5
1Outside Box4
Passing
42%Possession58%
335Total Passes470
254Accurate Passes378
76%Pass Accuracy80%
Goalkeeping
2Saves4
Discipline
18Fouls13
4Yellow Cards4
1Offsides0

Match Recap: Emmen vs De Graafschap

Emmen beat De Graafschap 3-0 in Eerste Divisie on November 25, 2024.

Goals: J. Hawkins (5'), F. Evina (9'), J. Kade (47').

De Graafschap controlled possession (58%) and registered 9 shots to 13.

The match was played at De Oude Meerdijk in Emmen.