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Emmen vs De Graafschap — Eerste Divisie 2018

Emmen
Emmen
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
De Graafschap
De Graafschap
R. Hillen 39' (OG)
B. van Hoeven 34'
Jeffry Fortes 17'
5/10/2024Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 38De Oude Meerdijk

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Emmen42%
×Draw24%
De Graafschap34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Emmen
1.65
De Graafschap
1.46

Emmen creates 13% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 131 away

creates per match

Emmen
1.82
De Graafschap
1.68

allows per match

Emmen
1.25
De Graafschap
1.47

finishing

Emmen+0.00on par
De Graafschap+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Emmen ↓

De Graafschap →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Emmen or draw
66%
Emmen or De Graafschap
76%
Draw or De Graafschap
58%

Winning margin

Emmen wins by 2+
22%
De Graafschap wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Emmen 1+ goals
81%
Emmen 2+ goals
49%
Emmen 3+ goals
23%
De Graafschap 1+ goals
77%
De Graafschap 2+ goals
43%
De Graafschap 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Emmen (draw refunded)
55%
De Graafschap (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Emmen at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.25 · 76 matches

De Graafschap away — creates 1.68, concedes 1.47 · 131 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Emmen attack 1.82 + De Graafschap defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.65

De Graafschap attack 1.68 + Emmen defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Emmen scores more
42%
level
24%
De Graafschap scores more
34%

Emmen at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Emmen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17
B. van HoevenEmmenEmmen · M
8.2

Match Events

6'
Vicente Besuijen
15'
Başar Önal
17'
Jeffry Fortes↳ X. Schenk
34'
B. van Hoeven↳ V. Besuijen
39'
R. HillenOwn goal
46'
M. Willemsen← R. Hillen
46'
D. Flakus Bosilj← B. Önal
54'
Stan Wevers
65'
R. Seuntjens← S. Wevers
68'
M. Mahi← D. Haen
69'
A. Yadir← T. van Gilst
70'
B. Scholte← J. Smeets
76'
P. Brouwer← B. van Hoeven
81'
M. Pouwels← P. Parzyszek
81'
J. Konings← L. Bernadou

Possession

34%Emmen

Shots

10Emmen

Pass accuracy

43%Emmen

Statistics

EmmenDe
Overview
34%Possession66%
10Total Shots13
4Corners5
9Fouls8
Shots
10Total Shots13
4On Target3
5Off Target5
1Blocked5
5Inside Box8
5Outside Box5
Passing
34%Possession66%
271Total Passes526
170Accurate Passes445
63%Pass Accuracy85%
Goalkeeping
1Saves2
Discipline
9Fouls8
1Yellow Cards2
3Offsides3

Eerste Divisie: Emmen 2–1 De Graafschap

Emmen beat De Graafschap 2-1 in Eerste Divisie on May 10, 2024.

Goals: Jeffry Fortes (17'), B. van Hoeven (34'), R. Hillen (39' o.g.).

De Graafschap controlled possession (66%) and registered 13 shots to 10.

The match was played at De Oude Meerdijk in Emmen.