De Graafschap 4–0 Emmen: Result & Stats

De Graafschap

FT

4 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Emmen

A. Yadir 87'

P. Brittijn 72', 59'

J. van de Haar 45+1'

1/24/2025

Eerste Divisie · Round 23Stadion De Vijverberg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

De Graafschap48%

×Draw24%

Emmen28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

De GraafschapExpected goals in this matchEmmen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.21

De Graafschap

1.67

Emmen

1.21

De Graafschap creates 38% more chances

Season form · 129 home / 76 away

1.84

creates per match

1.30

1.12

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

De Graafschap

1.84

Emmen

1.30

allows per match

De Graafschap

1.12

Emmen

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

De Graafschap+0.00on par

Emmen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

De Graafschap ↓

Emmen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

De Graafschap or draw

72%

De Graafschap or Emmen

76%

Draw or Emmen

52%

Winning margin

De Graafschap wins by 2+

25%

Emmen wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

De Graafschap 1+ goals

81%

De Graafschap 2+ goals

50%

De Graafschap 3+ goals

23%

Emmen 1+ goals

70%

Emmen 2+ goals

34%

Emmen 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

De Graafschap (draw refunded)

63%

Emmen (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

De Graafschap at home — creates 1.84, concedes 1.12 · 129 matches

Emmen away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.50 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

De Graafschap attack 1.84 + Emmen defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.67

Emmen attack 1.30 + De Graafschap defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

De Graafschap scores more

48%

level

24%

Emmen scores more

28%

De Graafschap at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "De Graafschap will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

P. Brittijn

De Graafschap · F

8.6

Match Events

31'

Alaa Bakir

45+1'

J. van de Haar

46'

Y. Eduardo← A. Rogulj

53'

R. Seuntjens← J. van de Haar

59'

P. Brittijn↳ Jeffry Fortes

63'

F. Quispel← J. Hawkins

63'

T. Geypens← D. Nunumete

72'

P. Brittijn↳ K. Symons

76'

M. Mahi← T. van Gilst

83'

A. Yadir← D. Warmerdam

84'

S. Saarinen← Jeffry Fortes

86'

M. Martin← J. Kade

86'

R. Schouten← K. Nsona

87'

A. Yadir↳ S. Saarinen

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DeEmmen

Overview

55%Possession45%

30Total Shots5

12Corners4

8Fouls4

Shots

30Total Shots5

9On Target1

13Off Target2

8Blocked2

20Inside Box3

10Outside Box2

Passing

55%Possession45%

417Total Passes353

339Accurate Passes260

81%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

1Saves5

Discipline

8Fouls4

0Red Cards1

1Offsides3