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Emelec vs Orense SC — Liga Pro 2026

Emelec
Emelec
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Orense SC
Orense SC
A. Zapata 84'
10/16/2021Liga ProLiga Pro · 2nd Round - 10Estadio Banco del Pacífico

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 105+ matches

Emelec54%
×Draw27%
Orense SC20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Emelec
1.46
Orense SC
0.76

Emelec creates 92% more chances

Season form · 132 home / 105 away

creates per match

Emelec
1.47
Orense SC
0.70

allows per match

Emelec
0.82
Orense SC
1.44

finishing

Emelec+0.00on par
Orense SC+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Emelec ↓

Orense SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Emelec or draw
80%
Emelec or Orense SC
73%
Draw or Orense SC
46%

Winning margin

Emelec wins by 2+
27%
Orense SC wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Emelec 1+ goals
77%
Emelec 2+ goals
43%
Emelec 3+ goals
18%
Orense SC 1+ goals
53%
Orense SC 2+ goals
18%
Orense SC 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Emelec (draw refunded)
73%
Orense SC (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Emelec at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.82 · 132 matches

Orense SC away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.44 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Emelec attack 1.47 + Orense SC defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.46

Orense SC attack 0.70 + Emelec defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Emelec scores more
54%
level
27%
Orense SC scores more
20%

Emelec at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Emelec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

55'
Rolando David Silva
65'
Gabriel Achilier
66'
Sebastián Rodriguez
68'
J. López← H. Matamoros
68'
J. Caicedo← E. Montaño
73'
Á. Gracia← B. Carabalí
77'
N. Czornomaz← J. Angulo
81'
Joel López Pisano
84'
A. Zapata
86'
B. Vides← W. Godoy
90+1'
J. Caicedo← J. Rojas
90+4'
A. Cabeza← F. Barcelo
90'
E. Lastre← A. Zapata

Possession

59%Emelec

Shots

5Emelec

Statistics

EmelecOrense
Overview
59%Possession41%
5Total Shots11
2Corners3
8Fouls22
Shots
5Total Shots11
3On Target5
2Off Target6
Passing
59%Possession41%
Goalkeeping
5Saves2
Discipline
8Fouls22
0Yellow Cards2
1Red Cards1
6Offsides0

Liga Pro: Emelec 1–0 Orense SC

Emelec beat Orense SC 1-0 in Liga Pro on October 16, 2021.

Goals: A. Zapata (84').

Emelec controlled possession (59%) and registered 5 shots to 11.

The match was played at Estadio Banco del Pacífico in Guayaquil.