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Elmina Sharks vs Ebusua Dwarfs — Division One League 2025

Elmina Sharks
Elmina Sharks
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Ebusua Dwarfs
Ebusua Dwarfs
1/10/2026Division One LeagueDivision One League · Round 15

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Elmina Sharks40%
×Draw31%
Ebusua Dwarfs29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Elmina Sharks
1.10
Ebusua Dwarfs
0.90

Elmina Sharks creates 22% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

creates per match

Elmina Sharks
1.33
Ebusua Dwarfs
0.87

allows per match

Elmina Sharks
0.93
Ebusua Dwarfs
0.87

finishing

Elmina Sharks+0.00on par
Ebusua Dwarfs+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Elmina Sharks ↓

Ebusua Dwarfs →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–112%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Elmina Sharks or draw
71%
Elmina Sharks or Ebusua Dwarfs
69%
Draw or Ebusua Dwarfs
60%

Winning margin

Elmina Sharks wins by 2+
16%
Ebusua Dwarfs wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Elmina Sharks 1+ goals
67%
Elmina Sharks 2+ goals
30%
Elmina Sharks 3+ goals
10%
Ebusua Dwarfs 1+ goals
59%
Ebusua Dwarfs 2+ goals
23%
Ebusua Dwarfs 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Elmina Sharks (draw refunded)
58%
Ebusua Dwarfs (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Elmina Sharks at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.93 · 15 matches

Ebusua Dwarfs away — creates 0.87, concedes 0.87 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Elmina Sharks attack 1.33 + Ebusua Dwarfs defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.10

Ebusua Dwarfs attack 0.87 + Elmina Sharks defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Elmina Sharks scores more
40%
level
31%
Ebusua Dwarfs scores more
29%

Elmina Sharks at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Elmina Sharks will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Elmina Sharks vs Ebusua Dwarfs

Ebusua Dwarfs beat Elmina Sharks 1-0 in Division One League on January 10, 2026.