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Elmina Sharks vs Ebusua Dwarfs — Premier League 2019

Elmina Sharks
Elmina Sharks
FT
1 – 0
Ebusua Dwarfs
Ebusua Dwarfs
B. Boateng 87'
4/4/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 18Cape Coast Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Elmina Sharks49%
×Draw27%
Ebusua Dwarfs24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Elmina Sharks
1.39
Ebusua Dwarfs
0.88

Elmina Sharks creates 58% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 31 away

creates per match

Elmina Sharks
1.25
Ebusua Dwarfs
0.74

allows per match

Elmina Sharks
1.02
Ebusua Dwarfs
1.52

finishing

Elmina Sharks+0.00on par
Ebusua Dwarfs+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Elmina Sharks ↓

Ebusua Dwarfs →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Elmina Sharks or draw
76%
Elmina Sharks or Ebusua Dwarfs
73%
Draw or Ebusua Dwarfs
51%

Winning margin

Elmina Sharks wins by 2+
24%
Ebusua Dwarfs wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Elmina Sharks 1+ goals
75%
Elmina Sharks 2+ goals
40%
Elmina Sharks 3+ goals
16%
Ebusua Dwarfs 1+ goals
59%
Ebusua Dwarfs 2+ goals
22%
Ebusua Dwarfs 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Elmina Sharks (draw refunded)
67%
Ebusua Dwarfs (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Elmina Sharks at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.02 · 44 matches

Ebusua Dwarfs away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.52 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Elmina Sharks attack 1.25 + Ebusua Dwarfs defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.39

Ebusua Dwarfs attack 0.74 + Elmina Sharks defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Elmina Sharks scores more
49%
level
27%
Ebusua Dwarfs scores more
24%

Elmina Sharks at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Elmina Sharks will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

38'
I. Donkor← I. Donkor
62'
J. Nyamekye← J. Nyamekye
64'
69'
J. Bissue← J. Bissue
81'
R. Amoah← R. Amoah
85'
87'
B. Boateng

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Elmina Sharks vs Ebusua Dwarfs

Elmina Sharks beat Ebusua Dwarfs 1-0 in Premier League on April 4, 2021.

Goals: B. Boateng (87').

The match was played at Cape Coast Sports Stadium in Cape Coast.