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Ebusua Dwarfs vs Elmina Sharks — Premier League 2019

Ebusua Dwarfs
Ebusua Dwarfs
FT
2 – 2
Elmina Sharks
Elmina Sharks
R. Issah 86'
D. Korsah-Akoumah 40' (pen)
I. Hammond 57'
R. Mpong 41'
11/15/2020Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 1Cape Coast Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Ebusua Dwarfs55%
×Draw25%
Elmina Sharks20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ebusua Dwarfs
1.58
Elmina Sharks
0.84

Ebusua Dwarfs creates 88% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 41 away

creates per match

Ebusua Dwarfs
1.41
Elmina Sharks
0.59

allows per match

Ebusua Dwarfs
1.09
Elmina Sharks
1.76

finishing

Ebusua Dwarfs+0.00on par
Elmina Sharks+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ebusua Dwarfs ↓

Elmina Sharks →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Ebusua Dwarfs or draw
80%
Ebusua Dwarfs or Elmina Sharks
75%
Draw or Elmina Sharks
45%

Winning margin

Ebusua Dwarfs wins by 2+
29%
Elmina Sharks wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Ebusua Dwarfs 1+ goals
79%
Ebusua Dwarfs 2+ goals
47%
Ebusua Dwarfs 3+ goals
21%
Elmina Sharks 1+ goals
57%
Elmina Sharks 2+ goals
21%
Elmina Sharks 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Ebusua Dwarfs (draw refunded)
73%
Elmina Sharks (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ebusua Dwarfs at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.09 · 32 matches

Elmina Sharks away — creates 0.59, concedes 1.76 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ebusua Dwarfs attack 1.41 + Elmina Sharks defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.58

Elmina Sharks attack 0.59 + Ebusua Dwarfs defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Ebusua Dwarfs scores more
55%
level
25%
Elmina Sharks scores more
20%

Ebusua Dwarfs at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Ebusua Dwarfs will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

40'
D. Korsah-AkoumahPenalty
41'
R. Mpong
57'
I. Hammond
86'
R. Issah

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Ebusua Dwarfs 2–2 Elmina Sharks

Ebusua Dwarfs and Elmina Sharks drew 2-2 in Premier League on November 15, 2020.

Goals: D. Korsah-Akoumah (40' pen), R. Mpong (41'), I. Hammond (57'), R. Issah (86').

The match was played at Cape Coast Sports Stadium in Cape Coast.