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Elche vs Huesca — Segunda División 2018

Elche
Elche
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Huesca
Huesca
Pere Milla 90+2'
Mikel Rico 55'
1/4/2020Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 22Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Elche46%
×Draw29%
Huesca25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Elche
1.27
Huesca
0.85

Elche creates 49% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 130 away

creates per match

Elche
1.31
Huesca
0.94

allows per match

Elche
0.76
Huesca
1.24

finishing

Elche+0.00on par
Huesca+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Elche ↓

Huesca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Elche or draw
75%
Elche or Huesca
71%
Draw or Huesca
54%

Winning margin

Elche wins by 2+
21%
Huesca wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Elche 1+ goals
72%
Elche 2+ goals
36%
Elche 3+ goals
14%
Huesca 1+ goals
57%
Huesca 2+ goals
21%
Huesca 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Elche (draw refunded)
65%
Huesca (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Elche at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.76 · 85 matches

Huesca away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.24 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Elche attack 1.31 + Huesca defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.27

Huesca attack 0.94 + Elche defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Elche scores more
46%
level
29%
Huesca scores more
25%

Elche at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Elche will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23
Juan CruzElcheElche · D
7.4

Match Events

19'
Gonzalo Villar
31'
Luisinho
36'
Pedro Mosquera
55'
Mikel Rico
64'
Josán Fernández← Fidel
68'
Dani Escriche← Cristo González
70'
Gonzalo Verdú
72'
Pere Milla← Nino
79'
O. Mfulu← Ramón Folch
79'
Juan Carlos← Eugeni Valderrama
85'
Pere Milla
85'
Miguelón
90'
Javier Galán← Sergio Gómez
90+2'
Pere Milla↳ Gonzalo Verdú

Possession

56%Elche

Shots

10Elche

Pass accuracy

51%Elche

Statistics

ElcheHuesca
Overview
56%Possession44%
10Total Shots7
6Corners4
13Fouls13
Shots
10Total Shots7
4On Target5
6Off Target2
0Blocked0
6Inside Box1
4Outside Box6
Passing
56%Possession44%
516Total Passes410
443Accurate Passes338
86%Pass Accuracy82%
Goalkeeping
4Saves3
Discipline
13Fouls13
3Yellow Cards3
3Offsides1

Match Recap: Elche vs Huesca

Elche and Huesca drew 1-1 in Segunda División on January 4, 2020.

Goals: Mikel Rico (55'), Pere Milla (90+2').

Elche controlled possession (56%) and registered 10 shots to 7.

The match was played at Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero in Elche.