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Elche vs Granada CF — La Liga 2026

Elche
Elche
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Granada CF
Granada CF
L. Suárez 42'
12/13/2020La LigaLa Liga · Round 13Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Elche44%
×Draw25%
Granada CF30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Elche
1.52
Granada CF
1.21

Elche creates 26% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 58 away

creates per match

Elche
1.18
Granada CF
1.21

allows per match

Elche
1.21
Granada CF
1.86

finishing

Elche+0.00on par
Granada CF+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Elche ↓

Granada CF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Elche or draw
70%
Elche or Granada CF
75%
Draw or Granada CF
56%

Winning margin

Elche wins by 2+
22%
Granada CF wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Elche 1+ goals
78%
Elche 2+ goals
45%
Elche 3+ goals
20%
Granada CF 1+ goals
70%
Granada CF 2+ goals
34%
Granada CF 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Elche (draw refunded)
59%
Granada CF (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Elche at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.21 · 76 matches

Granada CF away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.86 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Elche attack 1.18 + Granada CF defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.52

Granada CF attack 1.21 + Elche defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Elche scores more
44%
level
25%
Granada CF scores more
30%

Elche at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Elche will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7
L. SuárezGranada CFGranada CF · M
7.6

Match Events

10'
Josema
42'
L. Suárez↳ D. Machís
46'
Raúl Guti← Pere Milla
46'
J. Sánchez← Josema Sánchez
48'
Juan Sánchez Miño
73'
Diego Gonzalez
73'
E. Rigoni← Josan Ferrández
75'
Antonio Puertas← L. Suárez
81'
Jorge Molina← Soldado
86'
Maxime Gonalons
89'
Y. Eteki← M. Gonalons
89'
Quini← D. Machís
90'
Antonio Barragán
90'
Antonio Puertas

Possession

67%Elche

Shots

9Elche

Pass accuracy

54%Elche

Statistics

ElcheGranada
Overview
67%Possession33%
9Total Shots13
6Corners5
16Fouls15
Shots
9Total Shots13
1On Target5
5Off Target5
3Blocked3
8Inside Box9
1Outside Box4
Passing
67%Possession33%
524Total Passes243
449Accurate Passes177
86%Pass Accuracy73%
Goalkeeping
4Saves1
Discipline
16Fouls15
4Yellow Cards2
1Offsides2

Match Recap: Elche vs Granada CF

Granada CF beat Elche 1-0 in La Liga on December 13, 2020.

Goals: L. Suárez (42').

Elche controlled possession (67%) and registered 9 shots to 13.

The match was played at Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero in Elche.