Elche 3–1 Cordoba: Result & Stats

Elche

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Cordoba

R. Núñez 79'

N. Castro 62' (pen)

Yago Santiago 33'

Antonio Casas 90+3'

9/2/2024

Segunda División · Round 3Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Elche52%

×Draw26%

Cordoba22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ElcheExpected goals in this matchCordoba

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

0.90

Elche

1.52

Cordoba

0.90

Elche creates 69% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 72 away

1.31

creates per match

1.04

0.76

allows per match

1.74

creates per match

Elche

1.31

Cordoba

1.04

allows per match

Elche

0.76

Cordoba

1.74

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Elche+0.00on par

Cordoba+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Elche ↓

Cordoba →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Elche or draw

78%

Elche or Cordoba

74%

Draw or Cordoba

48%

Winning margin

Elche wins by 2+

27%

Cordoba wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Elche 1+ goals

78%

Elche 2+ goals

45%

Elche 3+ goals

20%

Cordoba 1+ goals

59%

Cordoba 2+ goals

23%

Cordoba 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Elche (draw refunded)

70%

Cordoba (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Elche at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.76 · 85 matches

Cordoba away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.74 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Elche attack 1.31 + Cordoba defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.52

Cordoba attack 1.04 + Elche defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Elche scores more

52%

level

26%

Cordoba scores more

22%

Elche at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Elche will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

N. Castro

Elche · M

7.3

Match Events

3'

Alex Sala

33'

Yago Santiago↳ Josan

38'

Genaro

43'

Nicolás FernándezMissed penalty

46'

Ander Yoldi← Álex Sala

46'

T. Zidane← Cristian Carracedo

53'

Bambo DiabyGoal cancelled

62'

N. CastroPenalty

65'

A. Álvarez← Óscar Plano

67'

Xavi Sintes← Genaro Rodríguez

68'

Carlos Isaac← Adilson

68'

N. Obolskiy← Jacobo González

74'

R. Núñez← Josan

74'

Mario Gaspar← Matia Barzic

79'

R. Núñez↳ José Salinas

81'

Gerard Hernández← Yago Santiago

81'

D. Affengruber← Bambo Diaby

90+3'

Antonio Casas

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ElcheCordoba

Overview

62%Possession38%

18Total Shots5

5Corners4

4Fouls23

Shots

18Total Shots5

5On Target3

8Off Target1

5Blocked1

13Inside Box3

5Outside Box2

Passing

62%Possession38%

468Total Passes284

397Accurate Passes220

85%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

4Fouls23

0Yellow Cards2

3Offsides3

Segunda División: Elche 3–1 Cordoba

Elche beat Cordoba 3-1 in Segunda División on September 2, 2024.

Goals: Yago Santiago (33'), N. Castro (62' pen), R. Núñez (79'), Antonio Casas (90+3').

Elche controlled possession (62%) and registered 18 shots to 5.

The match was played at Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero in Elche.

Elche vs Cordoba — Segunda División 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Segunda División: Elche 3–1 Cordoba