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Elche vs Cordoba — Segunda División 2018

Elche
Elche
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Cordoba
Cordoba
Nino 15'
4/7/2019Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 33Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Elche52%
×Draw26%
Cordoba22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Elche
1.52
Cordoba
0.90

Elche creates 69% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 72 away

creates per match

Elche
1.31
Cordoba
1.04

allows per match

Elche
0.76
Cordoba
1.74

finishing

Elche+0.00on par
Cordoba+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Elche ↓

Cordoba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Elche or draw
78%
Elche or Cordoba
74%
Draw or Cordoba
48%

Winning margin

Elche wins by 2+
27%
Cordoba wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Elche 1+ goals
78%
Elche 2+ goals
45%
Elche 3+ goals
20%
Cordoba 1+ goals
59%
Cordoba 2+ goals
23%
Cordoba 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Elche (draw refunded)
70%
Cordoba (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Elche at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.76 · 85 matches

Cordoba away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.74 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Elche attack 1.31 + Cordoba defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.52

Cordoba attack 1.04 + Elche defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Elche scores more
52%
level
26%
Cordoba scores more
22%

Elche at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Elche will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11
Iván SánchezElcheElche · M
7.7

Match Events

15'
Nino↳ Y. Qasmi
16'
Nino
19'
Gonzalo Verdú
28'
Alex Quintanilla
32'
José Fernández
34'
Ibrahim Blati Toure
46'
Chus Herrero← Miguel Flaño
59'
Álex Carbonell← I. Touré
65'
Carlos Castro← Nino
68'
Xavi Torres← Javi Flores
70'
Yann Bodiger
76'
Alfaro← De las Cuevas
77'
Nacho Gil← Iván Sánchez
90'
Chus Herrero

Possession

50%Elche

Shots

15Elche

Pass accuracy

50%Elche

Statistics

ElcheCordoba
Overview
50%Possession50%
15Total Shots6
9Corners3
11Fouls22
Shots
15Total Shots6
5On Target1
6Off Target3
4Blocked2
8Inside Box3
7Outside Box3
Passing
50%Possession50%
384Total Passes365
280Accurate Passes270
73%Pass Accuracy74%
Goalkeeping
1Saves4
Discipline
11Fouls22
2Yellow Cards5
4Offsides0

Elche 1 – 0 Cordoba

Elche beat Cordoba 1-0 in Segunda División on April 7, 2019.

Goals: Nino (15').

Elche controlled possession (50%) and registered 15 shots to 6.

The match was played at Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero in Elche.