Cordoba 1–2 Elche: Result & Stats

Cordoba

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Elche

Carlos Albarrán 28'

E. Rashani 89'

Óscar Plano 15'

3/30/2025

Segunda División · Round 33Estadio Nuevo Arcángel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Cordoba40%

×Draw26%

Elche34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CordobaExpected goals in this matchElche

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.26

Cordoba

1.41

Elche

1.26

Cordoba creates 12% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 86 away

1.54

creates per match

1.07

1.45

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Cordoba

1.54

Elche

1.07

allows per match

Cordoba

1.45

Elche

1.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cordoba+0.00on par

Elche+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cordoba ↓

Elche →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Cordoba or draw

66%

Cordoba or Elche

74%

Draw or Elche

60%

Winning margin

Cordoba wins by 2+

19%

Elche wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Cordoba 1+ goals

76%

Cordoba 2+ goals

41%

Cordoba 3+ goals

17%

Elche 1+ goals

72%

Elche 2+ goals

36%

Elche 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Cordoba (draw refunded)

55%

Elche (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cordoba at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.45 · 74 matches

Elche away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.28 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cordoba attack 1.54 + Elche defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.41

Elche attack 1.07 + Cordoba defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Cordoba scores more

40%

level

26%

Elche scores more

34%

Cordoba at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Cordoba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

N. Castro

Elche · F

7.9

Match Events

-5'

Carlos Marín

3'

Théo Zidane

15'

Óscar Plano↳ N. Castro

28'

Carlos Albarrán↳ Cristian Carracedo

61'

Nikolay Obolskiy

63'

Rubén

66'

Josan← Germán Valera

67'

Marc Aguado← N. Fernández

73'

Alberto del Moral← T. Zidane

73'

Pedro Ortiz← Jon Magunazelaia

73'

Antonio Casas← N. Obolskiy

81'

Ander Yoldi← Jacobo González

81'

E. Rashani← Óscar Plano

81'

A. Álvarez← Bambo Diaby

81'

D. Affengruber← Pejiño

89'

Ander Yoldi

89'

E. Rashani↳ Josan

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CordobaElche

Overview

44%Possession56%

17Total Shots8

11Corners2

26Fouls8

Shots

17Total Shots8

7On Target4

5Off Target3

5Blocked1

10Inside Box3

7Outside Box5

Passing

44%Possession56%

261Total Passes351

180Accurate Passes280

69%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

2Saves6

Discipline

26Fouls8

5Yellow Cards0

3Offsides3

Segunda División: Cordoba 1–2 Elche

Elche beat Cordoba 2-1 in Segunda División on March 30, 2025.

Goals: Óscar Plano (15'), Carlos Albarrán (28'), E. Rashani (89').

Elche controlled possession (56%) and registered 8 shots to 17.

The match was played at Estadio Nuevo Arcángel in Córdoba.

Cordoba vs Elche — Segunda División 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Segunda División: Cordoba 1–2 Elche